Ukraine victory: perspectives of spring – summer campaign

Ukraine victory: perspectives of spring - summer campaign

I've been talking a lot lately with the military at different levels. And also with my colleagues, who talk a lot with the military at different levels.

At the end of the day, there is a fairly optimistic picture. I repeat: I am talking specifically about the military component; politically, in particular, with the peace talks on the results of the spring and summer, everything is much more complicated. There are too many unclear factors there so there is no point in going too far ahead.

I will start with the current sore point of this war - Bakhmut.

I have already expressed my opinion that the military task of holding back the aggressor and buying time for the preparation of our offensive reserves has already been solved. Therefore, in principle, it would be possible to withdraw our troops behind the Bakhmutka River and continue defensive battles there in new positions. But now our special forces have been redeployed to Bakhmut, which has noticeably moved the Wagnerians out of the city and away from the freeway.

This indicates that our forces intend to hold Bakhmut. Again, I repeat, the military commanders know best. But the political component is clearly present here.

The propagandists of non-imperialism have exaggerated the district town of Bakhmut to the level of Stalingrad - they say that almost the main, crucial battle of this war takes place here. This is an exaggeration, to put it mildly. But our political leadership, to all appearances, has decided that since Stalingrad, we will not give it up or else we will arrange the invaders into a cauldron there, like Hitler's Paulus troops.

If there are such possibilities - my God! It is difficult to overestimate the value of such result of the battle for Bakhmut - encouraging for us and demoralizing for the enemy. Especially on the eve of the offensive.

But the main thing is still on the other fronts. And there in many places our reserve forces are observed - both fighters and modern equipment. Already on the territory of Ukraine. And all this continues to move from the side of Poland towards the fronts. 

It is not necessary to listen too reverently to Western politicians. It is more correct to follow how NATO's logistics service works.

But the main key to the success of the offensive is still not in the equipment. And not even in the training of our soldiers at our allies' bases. Platoon in defense, platoon in offensive, something else I was taught in my day - important, but not decisive. What is decisive is the embeddedness of our military, especially the forces of the coming offensive, in the operational information picture of the battle.

On the front lines our soldiers are surprised that no matter how many times they question a captured enemy mobilitary, they don't get anything useful. Because they know nothing: neither who their neighbor on the front line is, nor the location of artillery and armor, nor reserves. There is absolutely nothing, except his own trench and those with whom he was sent in a mental attack.

By the NATO standards we follow, even at the junior commander level there is a complete picture of the battle. Combined with NATO transports, this allows us to react quickly to everything that is going on and to keep track of the rapidly changing situation. And, as a result, it is not possible to bombard well-defended positions head-on, as the sub-imperial army does, but to terrorize the enemy from the flanks and rear, where it is not expected. Which is exactly what generates panic in the defenders and breaks through the front line.

It is clear that war is not a good process for making forecasts. Because in war rarely everything goes according to plan. But according to the current situation, the AFU's access to the Sea of Azov and the Crimean Isthmus in the summer and serious progress in Donbas are quite achievable.

However, in anticipation of success we are not relaxing. We are each bringing victory closer to our own ground. We remember that the enemy is cruel and treacherous, but we are on our own ground and know what we are fighting for. That is the Ukrainian way.

Oleksandr Kochetkov

Ukraine Front Lines


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