We have just learned that russia, putin and his special services have started implementing a set of measures to raise the stakes in the war with Ukraine and the Western world. The only question that remains unclear to me is whether Beijing has sanctioned the raising of the stakes.
Today’s meeting with Andrii Dligach and Oleksandr Solontay reminded me that we live inside a narrative that develops according to its own compelling scenario (as Andrew Zablotsky says).
Or the “youngster grandfather” decided to go all in at his own risk. Because he has nowhere else to go. Except – to follow a Russian ship.
The next 10 days will be decisive in our lives. Unfortunately, it is not up to us to decide, since we have done everything that depended on us. Although this is not a reason to stop. Everything is in our hands.
On February 21, putin will address the Federal Assembly, where he is expected to “surprise” us with something.
On February 22, russia convenes the UN Security Council to discuss accusations against the U.S. of undermining the Nord Stream deep-sea pipeline. The hypothesis of an undermining by American combat swimmers was reported by the “youngster grandfather” Seymour Hersh and promoted in Western Europe by Bundestag deputy from the leftist party Sevim Dagdelen.
Obviously, putin and his henchmen are staking on this narrative to demonstrate that it was not they who started the war with the U.S. and NATO. Obviously, the goal is to destabilize and divide NATO forces, which have already suffered significant reputational losses after a zero response to the fall of a russian missile on Polish territory (yes, I know what you’re going to say, but I do know whose missile it was) and an unpunished flight of russian missiles in Moldovan and Romanian airspace.
Add to this an exit of russian nuclear submarines into the ocean and an interception of russian planes by European fighters on the border with the European Union.
On February 22, the Federation Council of the russian Federation will hold a meeting, and the rf senators will probably have to take some fateful decisions. Or pretend to take. One way or another, the decision will be dictated by the need to save the ass of pitun, who has got into thistles up to his ears and cannot get out.
It should be added that the infamous videos about the acceptance of L/DNR into the russian federation were recorded on February 22, 2022, and the next 48 hours were spent trading, but the Ukrainian side was not invited.
Thus, it looks like putin will offer the world an escalation or a retreat. Without any doubt, the only tool for escalation can be exclusively the use of nuclear weapons, since everything else has already been used.
The key question is what could be the target of a nuclear strike?
There are the following options:
1. Ukrainian troops on the eastern front near the border of the Kharkiv-Donetsk-Luhansk regions.
2. Kyiv,
3. Belarus,
4. Poland,
5. Naval targets in the open ocean belonging to NATO countries.
A strike against targets on the territory of Ukraine will not have a dramatic impact on the balance of forces and the resistance of Ukraine. We’ve been through this. It’s good that we have Zelensky. It would be more difficult without him. But even without him, the blows against ruscists would not stop.
A strike against the NATO territory is much more promising because NATO can swallow it (see my previous posts).
A strike against naval targets is nothing. But remember that we are dealing with a fucking perv who has a suitcase full of poop carried with him.
The meeting of the UN Security Council is needed in order to accuse the USA of starting a war by undermining the Nord Stream pipeline.
There will definitely be the raising of the stakes.
The only question is how the West will respond. Because he can’t play this game with us anymore. The West is totally scared. So putin will continue to play on their fear until he is exhausted.
As for Washington’s behavior, it will keep all its cards on the table with a possibility to fold at any time.
KEY POINT!
“Make it or break it.”
“You can only die once.”
It is very important to be prepared for tactical defeats and remain focused until the strategic victory, which cannot help but happen.
In the metaphysical world, Ukraine’s victory has already taken place, but reality may be far behind.
Hold on for the next 10-12 days. Do not succumb to “emotional swings.” Whatever decision you will make – to work as usual or to get out of the country, – the main thing is to do it calmly, without hysterics.
Maybe nothing will happen… Because, most likely, putin has not received sanctions from Beijing for any arts. However, it will shake up us quite a lot.
Tags: nuke weapons Putin Russia russia ukraine war
