When U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would likely hold his first meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia, many were surprised by his choice of venue for discussing an end to the war in Ukraine.
Manal Khalil for BBC Ukraine.
Trump did not specify a date for the meeting but hinted that it could take place soon.
He even suggested that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman might join the negotiations.
Trump’s remarks came just hours after a phone call with Putin, during which, according to the U.S. leader, they focused on potential pathways to achieving peace in Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia has supported the idea of hosting the meeting.
“The Kingdom reaffirms its ongoing efforts to achieve lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine,” stated the official announcement from the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, published on social media platform X.
Neutral venue
China and the United Arab Emirates also proposed organizing a personal meeting between Trump and Putin.
“Saudi Arabia is a completely logical option for the Trump-Putin meeting since it is a neutral venue,” believes Paul Salem, Vice President of the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Salem explains that holding the meeting in a European country is not feasible due to Europe’s strong pro-Ukrainian stance.
This view is shared by Professor of International Relations Hattar Abu Diab.
“Traditionally, neutral locations, like Geneva, are chosen for such summits. However, the deterioration of Russia’s relations with Switzerland and other European countries likely led to this alternative choice,” he said.
He adds that Saudi Arabia has successfully built mutually beneficial relations with Putin and is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
In 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin, accusing him of war crimes in Ukraine. Putin can visit the Gulf kingdom without the risk of being arrested, analysts note.
Strengthening the role of a mediator
In addition, Saudi Arabia has been one of the mediators in the prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, earning the trust of both countries.
During a recent exchange, facilitated by Riyadh, Russia released American teacher Mark Fogel, who had been sentenced in Russia on charges of drug trafficking.
According to U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Vitkoff, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a crucial role in this matter.
Saudi Arabia has repeatedly reached out to both President Zelensky and President Putin, urging for a peace agreement between the two countries. To this end, it organized an international meeting in Jeddah with representatives from several nations.
During Putin’s visit to Riyadh in December 2023, Mohammed bin Salman referred to him as a “special and highly respected guest both on a governmental and public level.”
Gulf expert Abdullah Baabud believes that Saudi Arabia seeks to play a mediating role similar to that of Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), aiming to strengthen its influence as a key regional player.
Baabud suggests that organizing the meeting between Trump and Putin could be a diplomatic service by Saudi Arabia, possibly in exchange for more active involvement from Riyadh in the strategic interests of the United States, such as the signing of the Abraham Accords—a series of agreements normalizing relations between Israel and Arab states signed in 2020–2021.
Paul Salem believes that Trump aims to strengthen U.S.-Saudi relations for economic, financial, investment, and strategic reasons, noting Trump’s interest in a potential future agreement involving the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
The kingdom plays a pivotal role in Trump’s Middle East policy, particularly regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, adds Professor of Strategic Communications Nidal Choukair.
“Oil” factor
The U.S. ranks first in the world in oil production, surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Since the Russian-Ukrainian war has affected global energy markets, experts note that Riyadh has played a key role in supporting oil price stability.
At a meeting in December 2024, the eight OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to postpone increasing oil production due to weak demand and competition from non-member countries.
Saudi Arabia and Russia share common interests as the world’s largest oil producers, says Abdullah Baabud. He expects the Trump-Putin meeting to address not only the end of the war in Ukraine but also global oil prices and economic cooperation.
“Trump might try to negotiate favorable crude oil prices for U.S. energy companies, especially after he previously called for lowering prices,” the expert speculates.
He adds that Trump is a staunch supporter of fossil fuel development, which aligns with Saudi Arabia’s role as a major oil exporter.
Strategic interests
During his previous term, Trump was the first to visit Saudi Arabia, which elevated the kingdom’s diplomatic status on the international stage.
Recently, Trump stated that he would reconsider the possibility of making his first foreign trip to Saudi Arabia and even mentioned the price for it.
“If Saudi Arabia wanted to buy [our products] for an additional 450 billion or 500 billion dollars—let’s increase that figure considering inflation—I think I would probably go,” he told reporters in the Oval Office last month.
A few days later, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared that the kingdom wants to invest 600 billion dollars in the U.S. over the next four years.
In response, Trump raised the stakes.
“I will ask the Crown Prince, a fantastic guy, to round that up to about a trillion dollars. I think they will go for it because we treat them very well,” Trump said during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Nidal Shuker believes that Trump views Saudi Arabia as a key strategic and economic partner.
In his opinion, Trump aims to secure the dominant economic role of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf, especially given the shift by former President Joe Biden towards Asia.
Trump is also seeking to strengthen U.S. influence in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries amid Washington’s strategic competition with China, according to international relations professor Hattar Abu Diab.
Although Saudi Arabia has been criticized for human rights violations, experts believe that recent reforms in the kingdom, such as the abolition of the religious police and allowing women to drive, have improved its global image, making it less vulnerable to political pressure from the new U.S. administration.
Tags: peace plan peace talks Politics Putin russia ukraine war saudi arabia trump Ukraine
