Judging by the results of January 14th's russian massive missile strike on Ukraine, which resulted the horrible tragedy in Dnipro I’d like to draw some conclusions:
- Russian Aerospace Forces command is definitely well aware of WHERE and WHEN to strike... to achieve the desired effect... and yes, they have a corresponding plan... (which means they have the corresponding SOURCES of information, including online, about the state of our infrastructure and the dynamics of its recovery)
- A “feeble attack”, in my opinion, was caused not by the structure and volume of the pigdogs' missile arsenal, but primarily by its SELECTIVITY in relation to the array of forces and air assets allocated for the strike and the chosen methodology for breaking through the air defense system of Ukraine... (which means they thoroughly and in detail STUDY our air defense system and the whole system of protection of our civil infrastructure).
The distribution of their "missile reserve" is rather a secondary factor, which they are guided by in determining the composition and size of the air assets intended for a particular strike (and this is obviously determined by some practical factors... but this is a topic of a separate conversation).
- The fact that when organizing and conducting these strikes, they often do NOT hit the selected targets and objects, but hit peaceful citizens of Ukraine (and this leads to numerous casualties) is not even considered by the russian military command (and accordingly, their military and political leadership), as a factor that significantly hinders the achievement of the "set goals" (in this case, the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure). They treat it as an unpleasant, in the informational and psychological sense, side effect (they must justify themselves all the time...). Accordingly, they are obviously not going to stop because of this...
- Moreover, in some cases, russia’s military command quite deliberately directs missile strikes against targets and objects, which not only multiply, but almost guarantee the probability of the death of peaceful civilian Ukrainians. Therefore, in these cases we can talk about russia’s deliberate implementation of ELEMENTS OF THE STRATEGY of warfare, which involve violation of international rules and laws of warfare... in advance.
- When preparing a massive missile attack on targets and objects on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy is obviously trying to test a variety of options - from a constant "disturbing" method (including for conducting reconnaissance of our air defense and its depletion), to massive one-moment strikes... In fact, they try to achieve their goal with different variations of using their air assets. Here, probably, everything is determined by the composition of the "price" of these assets that are, or will be in the near future, at their disposal...
- And the last thing... it is obvious that russia’s military and political leadership considers destruction and wrecking of our critical infrastructure (especially energy...) as a task of the STRATEGIC level, the success of which can significantly affect the overall course of the war....
And if we remember the fact that the rf is actively implementing a set of measures aimed at adapting their pigdog reserve to a long-term war of attrition... then the main meaning of their medium-term warfare strategy becomes apparent... with its 3 key elements, namely:
- creating a MASS Land Army through mobilization measures (the goal is obvious, so far - conducting strategic defense and simultaneously creating and accumulating STRATEGIC RESERVES, and in the future - another strategic offensive)
- transferring the economic, social, information and other spheres of the country, as well as the state apparatus (vertical of power) "on military rails"
- destroying (or rather inflicting critical damage to) similar strategic elements of the enemy (i.e. Ukraine and, if possible, our allies) in order to deprive us, at least in the medium-term perspective, of the means and opportunities to wage a long-term war of attrition.
Alexandr Kochetkovrussia ukraine war