On the fourth day of military operations in the Kursk region, it becomes extremely obvious that the goal of this activity is not so much the creation of a sanitary zone on the border with Ukraine as much deeper targets, so far limited by the E-38 highway.
On the night of August 8-9, a Russian reinforcement convoy was destroyed near the village of Oktyabrskoye, 8 km from the Rylsk transport hub. There is no exact data on casualties so far, but a video has been verified in open sources, which confirms not only the loss of vehicles, but also dozens of killed Russian soldiers.
This video, published in the first half of the day on August 9, confirmed that the Ukrainian forces had if not physical, then at least fire control over the E-38 highway.
In addition, the Russian information segment reported clashes in the area of the villages of Gorodishche-Titov, Korenevo, Cheremoshki and Martynovka. All these settlements, in addition to the Sudzha district, also belong to other districts of the Kursk region, which indicates a significant expansion of the military front that may already reach 100 km.
We analyze the incoming information amid the absence of any reports from official Ukrainian sources and the lag of 2-3 days in publishing reports by quasi-official ones. Russian sources are either succumbing to panic or excessively inappropriate bravado rather than covering the situation with restraint.
In general, given the direction from the suddenly emerged point of Gorodishche-Titov – Cheremoshki – Martynovka, it is clear that the direction along the E-38 that may be formed within the next 3-4 days can extend to about 4 thousand square kilometers of the Kursk region area.
It is important to note that yesterday evening, on August 8, the Russian side was talking about Kromskie Byki in panicked reports, whereas by the morning of August 9, Cheremoshki was already mentioned in their reports. The settlement of Cheremoshki is only 10 km from the E-38 highway, and there are no obstacles in the form of villages along the Lgov-Sudzha highway. That is, the issue of physical control over the E-38 can be settled by the end of this day.
Such a scale no longer allows what is happening in the Kursk region to be called simply the Sudzha operation, but clearly the Kursk operation.
Prospects
It is obvious that the Russian command does not currently have an effective plan to stop the enemy operation in the Kursk region, and the only thing that is slowing down the process of expanding the control zone is the settlements themselves. Before reaching the E-38 highway, the advance of the “300 Spartans” forces averaged 15 kilometers per day, now their advance will slow down. This is due to the fact that in both directions along the E-38 highway there are a total of 20 small and medium-sized settlements.
Nevertheless, it is the E-38 that can significantly expand the scope of coverage of the above-mentioned area, which in turn will create an extremely unique situation, namely, the encirclement of the locations in the Kursk region where there is currently no presence of the “300 Spartans” units.
In addition, the Russian command is unlikely to be able to formulate a defense concept for the Kursk region in the coming week, given the rapidly decreasing zone of control by the Russian troops on the Russian territory.
On the evening of August 9, at about 20:00 Kyiv time, a photo was published on Ukrainian channels, taken against the background of the road sign “Kursk – 10 kilometers”. It was clearly taken in the middle of the day, that is, with a delay of several hours, and thus it was reported that the troops, not hiding their affiliation, were at a minimum distance from the Russian regional center.
Besides, around the same time, information appeared that a power facility had been destroyed in the village of Oktyabrskoye, and the Yuzhnaya plant had been damaged in the Kursk area. Power outages began in Kursk, Kurchatov, as well as Volokno, Pryamintseno and Voroshnyovo.
But all these signs did not indicate that an assault on the regional center – Kursk could begin in the near future. Kursk is a city with an area of more than 200 km² and a population of more than 400 thousand people. To carry out assault operations on such a city, a grouping potential of at least 70-100 thousand servicemen is required.
It is obvious that in the vicinity of Kursk, by the evening of August 9 conditions have been created for a successful operation in Kurchatov, where the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is located, and on the nearest approaches to the city of Kursk, lines will be created in order to… For example, in order to not only take this city under fire control in the coming days, to destroy military and dual infrastructure facilities, but also to plunge it into a blackout for the ultimatum positions to be strengthened.
It is quite possible that on August 10 we will already be discussing with you not only the physical presence of the “300 Spartans” on the E-38 highway, but also the much more significant achievements of this group in the Kursk region, at a breakthrough depth of 50-55 km.
Olexandr Kovalenko, military-political observer, for Minval.az
Tags: Russia russia - ukraine war sudzha
