Boryslav Bereza summing up the results based on the information from various reliable sources.
1. The plan to rapidly capture Ukraine and seize Kyiv in a few days was based on false assumptions of the RF’s leadership. This resulted in collapse of the entire campaign and showed that Russian experts are not able to calculate the development of a situation. This means that they will make similar mistakes in the future.
2. Putin was sure that, due to winter and strong energy dependence, Europe would not impose the sanctions that are currently applied to the RF. In addition, the Kremlin did not believe in such a tough position of the United States, which is obvious today. Neither were Russian analysts able to envisage the development of a negative scenario and the real withdrawal of Western business from Russia, which became an economic and image blow for the Russian Federation. Sanctions and restrictions made the RF economic system extremely unstable and will lead to drastic consequences in the short term if they continue.
3. To date, the Russian army has suffered heavy losses – over 11,000 killed, a huge number of wounded and hundreds of captives. Apart from this, the RF lost a significant amount of armored vehicles, some of which are used by the Ukrainian army now. It should also be noted that the RF lost dozens of aircraft and helicopters in 11 days, and this is more than their combat losses over the past 30 years. All this led to awful demoralization in the troops. Impressed by their losses, the Russian servicemen begin to surrender en masse in order to just survive in Putin’s war.
4. Everything that is happening has aggravated the internal conflicts of the RF elites. One of the best examples of such a conflict was the leak of information on the Kadyrovites. The FSB not only gave Ukraine information about the routes, number and personnel of the Kadyrovites, but also managed to lead the occupants’ column to the target point. There are also other clear signs that various Kremlin towers will use the war in Ukraine to their own advantage. And this means that someone’s devastating defeat in Ukraine is an opportunity for someone in the RF to devour a competitor or opponent in power.
5. It is worth noting that today the RF has no advantage on the ground, despite the fact that there is an advantage in the number of soldiers and equipment. Besides, Putin is really running out of combat-ready troops, which means that he will have to announce mobilization. This will not only be negatively perceived in the RF, but will be ineffective. The army of students, baristas, bloggers and coaches will not be able to withstand the experienced, aggressive, highly motivated Ukrainian army. And if we take into account the fact that the Ukrainian military leadership is definitely more experienced than Russians, the prospects for continuing the ground operation are lamentable for the Kremlin. At the same time, it should be noted that Putin is already in dire need of victories. But there are no victories. Therefore, it can be expected that out of spite and in order to break morale, Putin will continue bombing civilians. But it won’t work.
6. The war in Ukraine launched a series of crises in the world. This is not only an increase in migration flows, prices for food and energy resources. The matter is that Ukraine, which couldn’t start the sowing campaign, and Russia, on whose products the embargo was imposed, occupy a serious share in the supply of agricultural products. Bloomberg estimates that the combined share of Russia and Ukraine is over 25% of all world wheat supplies and almost 20% of all corn sold. But now these supplies are extremely doubtful, and there is no replacement. So famine is possible in some countries.
7. The war in Ukraine will create pressure on world leaders and will influence elections in other countries. We must not forget that Macron has elections in April, and elections to the Senate in November are important for Biden. And the dying children in Ukraine and new crises obviously do not add points to the rating. By the way, although Boris Johnson’s activity in Ukraine has reduced the likelihood of his resignation from the post of prime minister, this issue has not been completely withdrawn from the agenda. This means that Johnson remains the one who is interested in helping Ukraine. Excuse my cynicism in assessments, but that’s how it is. Therefore, ALL our partners should be requested to close the sky. It will work.
8. Europeans still don’t understand that Putin is the reincarnation of Hitler. And he will not stop in Ukraine. It is very likely that the next victim of the Kremlin’s policy will be Moldova, followed by the Baltic states and Poland. By the way, Moldova can become the country in which Putin will get a quick victory. Unfortunately, the army of Moldova is not combat effective. We should expect provocations from Transnistria. This will be the reason for the capture and will give Putin at least some victory, which he longs to give to his plebs. Therefore, Moldova should take care of this problem. Besides, Finland and Sweden should be ready. And these are not horror stories. Putin’s adequacy is very much in question. Therefore, the threat of a new global war is more urgent than ever. However, there is one moment. He can start a war, but he has no way to win. Why? Because there are no resources. I remind you of what I wrote above – his analysts are gravely mistaken. I wouldn’t be surprised if they provided him with false or erroneous data that they could succeed.
Based on the above, I draw the following conclusions. It is necessary to achieve: the closure of the sky; the imposition of new sanctions on the Russian Federation; all relatives of the Russian leadership should subject to the expulsion to the Russian Federation; the continuation of obtaining weapons, including offensive ones; disconnecting new Russian banks from SWIFT. But most importantly, the West must stop buying oil and gas from Russia. At least for a while. And if hostilities continue in Ukraine, then the embargo will be extended. Then it will force Putin to end the war. At the same time negotiations at different levels can be continued. But without all of the above, we will not get the result. Because Putin really went crazy.
Perhaps, there is some hope for a palace coup. But this is unlikely. Because the people in his environment are stupid, too cowardly and stained with the blood, whereas it takes courage and intelligence to use the “snuffbox.”
EMPRTags: Russia russia ukraine war Ukraine