Europe is ill with infantilism. While France and Germany are signing some “security guarantees” with Ukraine, their own military industry is not ready and is unlikely to be ready for a war with Russia in the near future.
Europe is a very slow thinker, and so are we and so is the entire collective West. As a result, they fall behind with a total overhaul of the military industry, spending 2 percent of their budget on defense. Even if they were spending 22 percent now, there would still be an issue of security, because you cannot load guns with money.
Europe is not ready for war. That’s why Europe will lose the war, or rather has already lost it. Only extraordinary measures, like black swans, can change the situation.
The West lost the second Cold War, to quote the Western press. Question: what will the West do with this loss? They don’t want to document it and neither do they want to admit it. They want to live the way they did before, when their main concern was discussing what and how much costs in a restaurant. How taxes were raised or lowered.
Very few politicians in the West have realized that they have lost. They realized that the trend was reversed back in December, when American aid ended, and they made out that they were left to help Ukraine one-to one, and the Americans, unknown/obviously/ seemingly were not going to help Ukraine as much as before.
The West did an audit of what they had, and realized that they couldn’t provide as much equipment, weapons and resources for the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is now the largest European war, as needed.
The future is difficult to predict. There is a necessary minimum of assistance, with which the front, with our very heavy losses, will hold on. And the country that, just to capture Avdiyivka, loses a combined arms army with a tank division in terms of the number of losses will go a long way to Warsaw through Ukraine. But if it goes directly to the Baltic States, then options are possible.
Europe is directly interested in Ukraine’s success on the battlefield. Because Ukraine is the only force able to restrain Russia in the modern world in Europe. The only one. For a sum of reasons, there are no states, countries or blocs capable of doing what we have already been doing for 2 years and are able to keep doing.
The fact that Europe cannot understand that their salvation is a maximum investment in Ukraine – by giving weapons and equipment and providing all other types of assistance – is related to their biography. And Poland is a symbol of this. Because if we lose, there will be no Poland. And they are doing everything to make us lose by dumping grain.
Grain is a separate issue. Of course, we are dumping the price of grain, but when Poland responds by blocking the delivery of all military cargoes to us, it means that very soon the Poles themselves will die for this. The Russians are not ceremonious with us, calling us brothers. I wonder what they will do with the Poles on their territory.
The Russians will get to you faster than you think, before you can buy F-16s, 1500 Korean tanks and receive HIMARS from the USA. Therefore, the Poles are not just hypocrites, but idiots, unable to assess the immediate consequences of their policies. And they don’t realize that what they need is not to help Ukraine to the end, but give everything to Ukraine, because we are the only factor that protects them from losing to Russia.
Oleksiy Arestovich
Tags: europe grain poland russia ukraine war
