Belgorod special operation: several trends

Belgorod special operation: several trends

The armed struggle of the russian opposition against Putin’s regime on the territory of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation showed several interesting trends.

Firstly, as was the case with the aircraft crash in the Bryansk region, the events in Belgorod were de facto silenced at the federal level. There are no words. Any explanation is bad.

The main speaker on the Bryansk aviation topic was Minsk purer Alexandr Lukashenko. The impression is that he really ought to know better. As if it was the Belarusian military who shot down the Russian jets and helicopters.

The problems fell on the shoulders of the governors both in Bryansk and Belgorod.

This is a strong message to other regions.

On the one hand, if some kind of trouble starts, you will be left alone.

On the other hand, your trouble will not be known in the country.

That is, the federal center will turn on you or trade you, if it is to its advantage. The integrity of Russia no longer exists.

Yet why is such a troublesome federal government required? 

Secondly. Moscow talking heads traditionally blame Ukraine for the events in Belgorod. But here's the thing.

This incident was, to put it mildly, high-profile. Every time after high-profile incidents, Moscow imitated "retaliation". Even if the strikes were launched by the Russian troops by chance after some bright events, it was presented as "retaliation".

As we can see, a day has passed, military operations are taking place on the Russian territory, but "retaliation" does not appear on the horizon.  

This means that ether Ukraine has nothing to do with this Russian civil conflict, or that Moscow is too weak and short on weapons. They need time to accumulate missiles or organize some other large-scale nastiness.

Weak Moscow is hiding from problems - this is what regional bosses across Russia see. 

And you know what the funny thing about it is? 

Lukashenko is going to visit Moscow. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin asks the purer for... military assistance. They will make this look like the peacekeeping initiative of the fraternal peoples and the fulfillment of allied obligations within the framework of the CSTO.  Like, why be nervous? Let Belarusians stand on the border from Bryansk to Voronezh regions.

For Russians, it is extremely disadvantageous to disperse their troops, which is why the Kremlin may demand from Minsk to get involved in the war in this way. But It will be funny: Lukashenko is the guarantor of Russia's military security and territorial integrity.

Alexey Kopytkov

Ukraine Front Lines

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