China enters the geopolitical game around war and peace in Ukraine with the firm intention of winning

China enters the geopolitical game around war and peace in Ukraine with the firm intention of winning. In any course of events.

What to expect from China. There was an afterword, but not everyone finishes reading it, so I turned it into a preface. I will fix it for the hot and hasty: I am not satisfied with the following possible version of Chinese peacemaking. I do not support it, much less promote it (there are the unwise who have decided to do so). I write about it because one has to be prepared for everything.

To really understand China, you have to be born there. And then to die there. And then, perhaps, understanding will come. To your grandchildren.

But in a practical sense, it is enough to remember that the main thing for China is the unhurried, pragmatic path to economic domination by Chinese people over the white and black monkeys that are the rest of humanity. It is from this postulate that everything flows.

China enters the geopolitical game around war and peace in Ukraine with the firm intention of winning. In any course of events.

If, with Beijing's mediation, Ukraine and Russia agree to a cessation of hostilities (note, I am not talking about long-term peace!), then China will dramatically increase its international status. And in addition, it will be able to develop economic expansion in Europe, where a consumer boom will begin after the military confrontation in Ukraine is stopped. In this case, both Russia and Ukraine will owe China what it initially seeks in any relationship.

If China's peacemaking efforts are discarded - no matter by whom, Ukraine or the under-imperium - then China will have an excuse to gently blackmail the United States: saying that we offered such an excellent plan for reconciling the parties, but those who are behind the conflict did not hear us. Therefore, for the peace process, the United States must stop supporting Ukraine and Taiwan, otherwise we will start supporting Russia with weapons. The Chinese logic is even more convoluted than... (deleted by gender censor).

One way or another, China will be in the black. Now, actually, about a possible Chinese plan or compromise in Chinese.

It is more likely that Xi Jinping will propose a cease-fire and return to the status quo before February 24 last year, that is, before a full-scale invasion, but the Donbass is getting the whole thing. Of course, neither Ukraine nor Russia can publicly agree with such an approach. But this does not mean that nonpublic agreements cannot be reached.

You see, officially both sides will reject or ignore Comrade Xi's proposals. But in the course of ongoing hostilities, it will somehow work itself out that ours will push the aggressor out of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. And the Russians, continuing to put down thousands of convicts and mobs, but slowly advancing, will reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

Then negotiations will begin. And China, from the height of its thousand-year-old wisdom, will declare that this is what it proposed from the very beginning.

As for the position of the United States in this situation, they are cool to China's peace initiatives, but not sharply negative. The United States intends to give Ukraine the opportunity to lay down its negotiating terms on the battlefield during the spring and summer campaign. That's fair enough.

How will this play out? Naturally, first Comrade Xi will talk personally with Führerk Putin, who is waiting for this meeting like an overripe pumpkin. Then over the phone to President Zelensky. In parallel, Russian and Chinese high-level functionaries will talk to their American counterparts.

And if a non-public agreement is reached, Xi Jinping will make a pompous presentation of his own peace plan, already concrete. If not, he will limit himself to mere passing phrases about war being bad and peace being good, without any specifics. Something like the utterly declarative proposals that China (not Comrade Xi, mind you!) has already voiced.

On the whole, the situation looks like this, which does not give Ukraine much room for maneuver: either to agree with the proposals, which will not satisfy the Ukrainian society, or to reject them on the grounds that the society will not agree. Nevertheless, it is advisable to use the rare moment of communication with the leader of China for convincing the Ukrainian position - it will be useful for the future.

First, it is necessary to play on what China is close to and what China understands. It understands that Russia is trying to regain influence militarily over Ukraine, which Russia considers its historical territory. Roughly the same way China intends to reclaim Taiwan. In fact, this is exactly the card Putin is playing. 

But if China hates the fact that the U.S. provides military aid to Taiwan, which legally reads like China's happiness, then symmetrically Ukraine cannot accept the fact that Russia has been pumping weapons and troops into Donbass, which legally is Ukraine.

My point is that the problem of Donbass for Ukraine is extremely similar to the problem of Taiwan for the Celestial Empire. And Xi Jinping should be made aware of this similarity as much as possible.

Secondly, we do not forget about China's pragmatism and suggest discussing with him the areas of prospective cooperation.

Naturally, with a commitment to clean up the rubble that already exists. I am sure that Ukraine is capable of balancing along the narrow border between the U.S. and China. But in this case, we will have to act not so assertively, as we are already doing, but in a balanced and responsible way, which we have yet to learn.

But there is no other way.

Oleksandr Kochetkov

Ukraine Front Lines


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