Here’s what the implementation of the strategy “help as much as needed so that Putin cannot win” looks like. The numbers, which are hard to hide behind a pile of words, force a sober understanding of Ukraine’s prospects in the war with Russia, if Kamala Harris becomes the president of the U.S.
If Trump becomes president of the U.S., there is a 25-30% likelihood that the U.S. will give us significantly more weapons. And it is from this reality that we must proceed when building our own strategy.
US President Biden (and his Vice President Kamala) have been granted authority over a sum of $61 billion. These are the potential cumulative expenditures RELATED to the war in Ukraine.
As you might have guessed, “related to the war in Ukraine” is not exactly the same as “aid to Ukraine.” Important note: according to the PDA law, if it’s about weapons, the value should be calculated based on the residual price. However, in the case of the previous tranche (not from these $61 billion but from 2022-2023), for some reason, the calculations were made based on the price of new military equipment. Later, they called it an “accounting error,” and two commissions discovered that approximately $6 billion worth of weapons had not been “delivered” to Ukraine.
This doesn’t mean that these weapons were then given to someone else. No. The fiscal year ended, and the money simply disappeared. Such an unfortunate “accounting error” from Biden’s friend, his right hand Kamala Harris, and the Democratic Party of the USA.
But that was the previous tranche. What about this one? If we look closely at what exactly is included in these $61 billion: many things are “related” to the war in Ukraine. For example:
- $5 billion for the repair of US military submarines.
- Setting up a military base in Romania.
And many other useful things. BUT, directly related to Ukraine in this fund are about $30 billion.
$7.8 billion — weapons from stockpiles. This is the most important part, and we’ll discuss it in a moment.
Around $8 billion is for weapons that the “future Ukraine,” if it survives, will be able to order in 5-10 years.
Around $2 billion is for aid to countries hosting refugees from Ukraine. (Try to say that’s not related to Ukraine!)
About $11 billion is financial aid to the Ukrainian government. This covers the maintenance of the state bureaucracy — pensions for government officials, salaries for police officers, customs officers, judges, and other civil servants. It also helps maintain the hryvnia exchange rate, etc. Everything except the military.
This is a very important part of the aid because without this money, the hryvnia’s exchange rate would have collapsed with a couple of extra zeros long ago. It’s crucial because donations for the army, with salaries in hryvnias and an exchange rate of $1=200 UAH, would be “a little” less effective than they are now.
But the most important part is weapons because they directly affect the course of the war. Of this money, a total of $7.8 billion has been allocated for “stockpiled” weapons.
Let’s note that this is for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel — combined for all of them. But Taiwan received $0, and Israel received $0. Ukraine was allocated $1.8 billion directly for weapons from this $7.8 billion.
So, $6 billion remains, BUT there’s only time to provide it until September 30, 2024, when the US government’s fiscal year ends.
That means only 27 days remain!
Until October 1, 2024, Biden, in order to use these funds, is required by law only to notify Congress that “I am taking another $120 million from this fund that you previously approved for me.” That’s why we know exactly how much weaponry we’ve been provided. NOTHING can stop him, as it has already been pre-approved; he just needs to inform Congress, and that’s it.
What will happen after the specified date? The US President will lose the ability to use these funds. The money will remain unused. The next president would need to wait for a new PDA from Congress for a similar option, and it’s not certain that it will be approved.
The sincere “friend” of Ukraine, Joe Biden, generously dispenses $120-150 million from this fund once every two weeks. At the current pace, Ukraine won’t see this $6 billion worth of weapons!
Last time (2022-2023), Ukraine did not receive about 50% of what was approved by Congress, and there were also “unfortunate accounting errors” where the value was calculated based on the price of new equipment. This time, it seems we’re heading for a record, with “slippage” consuming 75% of the aid approved by Congress for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian propagandists continue to blame “bad Trump” and Republicans for the long approval of the PDA. Strangely, they don’t mention that Democrats and Biden are already holding back more than half of the allocated funds in 2023 and nearly 75% in 2024.
I will refrain from making judgments about what exactly is preventing Biden from providing the aid. You can either come up with a reason yourself or ask Portnikov and other pundits who tell you every day about the “61 billion for Ukraine.”
But the facts are quite grim. Many Ukrainians are paying with their lives for the weapons they haven’t received.
To put it in perspective, the US has provided Ukraine with weapons worth $26 billion throughout the war. So $6 billion in weapons would be a significant contribution to Ukraine’s defense capability.
Do you think “friend” Biden will help? And if not, what is preventing him?
P.S. Ukraine could be left without weapons and “maintenance funds” in 27 days. Have you heard any Ukrainian propagandists mention this “small problem”?
In the photo, Biden is sunbathing on the beach in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.
Tags: investigation military aid Russia russia ukraine war Ukraine United States US aid USA
