Our American friends are trying to scare us—and at the same time Europe and the entire civilized world—with the rapid collapse of Ukraine’s defense unless Ukraine agrees to the terms of the Trump-Putin alliance. Well, that’s clearly cheap blackmail, but let’s try to look at the war from a more rational perspective.
First of all, in 2022, contrary to all predictions, we did not surrender and the front did not collapse, even though the enemy reached Kyiv—and in that now distant story, the Americans and our other allies played a minimal role.
The spring 2022 victory near Kyiv was not secured by Bradleys, Abrams tanks, Leopards, 155 mm NATO howitzers, American intelligence, or Starlinks. And not even by our high-ranking, celebrated generals, pampered by the President’s Office. That victory was achieved by Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers.
Then came the Kharkiv offensive, which—like the “Kyiv Defensive Operation” (as it’s now called in textbooks, although that’s not quite accurate unless we count as an “operation” the panic-driven demolition of bridges both where it was necessary and where it wasn’t)—was successful not thanks to the allies, but rather due to the enemy, who overstretched their forces expecting a blitzkrieg.
In the operation to liberate the right bank of the Dnipro and Kherson, HIMARS, M777 howitzers, plenty of Starlinks, and American intelligence were already being actively used. But once again, victory was secured by Ukrainian soldiers—and by the miscalculations of the Russian command.
Then the empire came to its senses: it analyzed its mistakes, executed (or dismissed) negligent commanders, amassed forces, carried out partial mobilization, built the Surovikin Line, used Wagner mercenaries as cannon fodder in meat-grinder assaults, took Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, laid siege to Bakhmut, and effectively nullified the entire grand spectacle known as the “Great Counteroffensive”—the one that had been hyped from every loudspeaker.
And yet, that was the moment when we had plenty of Western equipment, ammunition, money, and support.
But it all ended in a bloody flop.
Then Congress froze aid to Ukraine. Then, suddenly, the leadership finally realized that our defense depends on drones. Then, for some reason, they decided that Avdiivka was another fortress like Bakhmut, and that no defensive lines were needed behind it. Then it suddenly turned out that the mobilization had failed, there weren’t enough people, not enough drones, Biden lost, Trump’s an asshole, and things are so bad now that no one even talks about our victory anymore—only about the terms of our defeat.
So who’s to blame? Fifty percent of our failures and losses aren’t because the Americans didn’t help, but because we were fools ourselves. And how this whole story will end remains completely unknown. If there are fewer fools, we could easily return to the glorious year of 2022—the victories of which we mindlessly and bloodily squandered.
But at least we got good PR.
