Many experts and politicians who pray for Ukraine victory convinced by them say that this spring and summer will be decisive in Russia – Ukraine war. This is already an axiom.
I will try to explain why we must inflict a crushing defeat on the aggressor this year, and what will happen if we fail to do so.
The under-empire is preparing an offensive. Various sources claim that about 300 thousand fighters have been trained, of which 50 thousand are well trained and equipped. The aggressor plans to make the main attacks in the directions of Donbas and Zaporozhzhia, as well as diversionary attacks on Kyiv and Mykolaiv-Odesa, that is, along the entire front.
The enemy hopes that in order to deter these attacking blows, Ukraine will be forced to bring into battle its high-quality reserves that are now being trained in the allied countries, and thereby to use up its offensive potential.
Of course, the enemy will take neither Kyiv, nor Odesa, and so on. The aggressor’s troops are unlikely to advance. Unless the situation of last summer will repeat itself, when the under-empire practically reached the administrative borders of the Luhansk region. But for the enemy, it is more important to finally turn hostilities into a protracted positional war by the fall of 2023, i.e. into a war of attrition. Because in such a war, Ukraine’s chances are minimal.
Yes, the under-empire is running out of modern weapons, whereas we are getting more and more of them. However, some old Soviet weapons still remain there. Old D-30 howitzers shoot inaccurately, but they shoot. And the old unprotected T-55 tank is moving slowly, but it also shoots. And uncomplaining newly mobilized soldiers without reliable body armor and communications, armed with “Kalash”, crawl forward and also shoot at our positions. They die like flies, for example, the streets of Soledar are littered with the invaders’ corpses, but they crawl.
According to the laws of large numbers, some of these shells and bullets will hit our soldiers. And the enemy has an advantage in manpower. As it turned out, the under-empire doesn’t care about anyone. Russian soldiers are not spared by the generals fighting in the Stalinist style. The mobilized soldiers’ relatives and friends are not sorry they are dead either. The mobilized soldiers, with longing and hopelessness, but still are wandering to the slaughter.
Unfortunately, the under-empire is capable of fighting for years in this mode. And in a couple of years, a Republican president may come to power in the United States, and support for Ukraine will most likely decrease significantly. In fact, the Kremlin is counting on this.
Accordingly, it is vital for Ukraine to break the situation this year and do not allow the enemy to prolong the war, where it will receive an advantage in terms of manpower.
It is necessary, competently maneuvering, to stop the enemy’s offensive, which will begin in February, to exhaust the enemy, and then bring our reserves into battle and carry out a swift counteroffensive. That is, to repeat what we have already seen in the performance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkiv and Kherson.
The liberation of the occupied territories must be large-scale and as demonstrative as possible, so that internal political upheavals begin in the under-empire. Although they don’t care about losses, they react extremely painfully and hysterically to their defeats that cannot be hidden.
In this sense, the directions of our counteroffensive are quite obvious. This may be an advance towards Crimea, entering the peninsula to the Krasnoperekopsk line or the liberation of Donbas. And it is not at all necessary to assault Luhansk and Donetsk directly, it is enough to besiege them and cut off the weapon and ammunition supply routes.
This task looks quite realistic, given that the army corps formed from the inhabitants of Donbas are practically exsanguinated. And the aggressor’s army has never considered – and does not consider Donbas its territory; so it will not defend it especially stubbornly.
Our successful counteroffensive provides a good chance for productive negotiations on fair terms for a cessation of hostilities. Of course, this will not be a lasting peace, but only a temporary pause. But we will have the opportunity to seriously strengthen our defense capability, primarily through our own production. And also to engage in the targeted collapse of the under-empire from within, which is vitally important for Ukraine.
As a result: everything necessary, first of all, a large-scale de-occupation must be carried out this year. Otherwise, we will be bombarded with cannon fodder and rusty iron.
Tags: russia ukraine war ukraine victory
The side, who has stronger willingness and moral among it’s troops and home-front will winn this madness war. In my understanding it will be Ukraine, definitely.