Vladymir Putin’s goals and results of two months of Russia – Ukraine war , and what will happen next. Yuriy Butusov analytics.
Victory in a war is determined by strategy, let’s take a look at the strategy of the Russian Federation after two months of war.
1. Encirclement of the main administrative centers – Kyiv and Kharkiv, disorganization of the country’s government and forcing the leadership of Ukraine to surrender.
Result: the goals are not achieved, capitulation is impossible, the leadership of Ukraine continues the war, Kyiv and Kharkiv stand on the defensive.
2. Disruption of the mobilization deployment of Ukraine through a deep offensive on the territory of 11 regions.
Result: the goals are not achieved, Ukraine continues mobilization.
3. Cutting off the strategic highways of Ukraine west of Kyiv and north of Kryvyy Rig in order to prevent NATO countries from providing any support and supplies.
Result: the goals are not achieved, Ukraine has protected its communications, NATO is building up military support.
4. The capture of the Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea and Azov regions, the creation of a corridor from the Russian Federation to Transnistria.
Result: the goals are partially achieved. Pryazovya was captured, but Mykolaiv and Odesa regions are securely protected and the main seaports stand on the defensive.
5. Undermining the economy and demoralizing society in order to abandon organized resistance.
Result: the goals are not achieved, the economy received the support of the West, society rallied against the aggressor for victory, all political forces are directed to fight the enemy.
6. The collapse of the defense system, the destruction of military infrastructure.
Result: the goals are not achieved, the defense forces began to receive powerful military assistance from NATO countries, and significantly increased their combat capability. Russia has lost more than 3,200 units of military equipment, which is documented, and cannot compensate for such losses.
7. Capture of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Result: the goals are not achieved, two months later Ukraine is defending large areas of Donbas and many large cities.
What’s next?
1. Strategically, Putin has not been able to fully achieve any of his goals.
2. Russia has become involved in a war of attrition against Ukraine, supported by all NATO countries and most countries of the world, which have ten times more resources.
3. The capture of Mariupol will not change the strategic position of Russia in any way, and will only lead to tougher resistance, forcing Ukraine to refuse to compromise.
4. The technological advantage in the war after the supplies of the West will gradually go over to Ukraine’s side, which will lead to heavy losses of the Russian Federation and the loss of the Russian army’s ability to hold the occupied territories.
5. To continue the war, Putin will have to carry out partial mobilization, which will cause enormous damage to the Russian economy and demoralize Russian society.
6. Ukraine seized the strategic initiative in the war. Russia is capable of some tactical successes, but is unable to achieve any of its original goals.
7. Putin’s strategy has failed and there is no chance of the fall of Ukraine. The continuation, timing and price of the war depend on Ukraine’s ability to competently plan the use of available material and human resources, as well as the scale of attracting weapons resources and professional military personnel from abroad.
Tags: Butusov Putin Russia russia ukraine war Ukraine
