Ramstein and Friends of Peace: conflict or common Peace Formula for Ukraine?

A less-noticed piece of news from the UN General Assembly was the formation of an informal group of countries called “Friends of Peace,” led by China and Brazil. This group aims to promote their own vision of achieving peace in Ukraine. The group includes China, Brazil, Egypt, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Indonesia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Zambia, Mexico, Algeria, Bolivia, and Colombia. Additionally, Hungary, Switzerland, and France were invited, likely as observers.

China has consistently promoted its own “peace formula” since February 2024, in contrast to the “peace formula” championed by the U.S., which aimed to involve countries of the “Global South” during the “Peace Summit” in Switzerland.

It is now clear that we have two distinct coalitions: the U.S. and its partners providing aid to Ukraine (the informal “Ramstein” group) and China and its partners providing support to Russia (the informal “Friends of Peace” group). The next step for these two groups of countries is to agree on a common “peace formula” for Ukraine and implement this agreement through signed or declared documents, followed by concrete actions by Russia and Ukraine on the frontline.

If “Ramstein” and the “Friends of Peace” can agree on how this Russian-Ukrainian war should end, each side will then have to ensure the consent of their “sponsored” warring party.

In this case, the task of the “Friends of Peace” will be to explain to Putin that he must agree to the common “peace formula,” as failing to do so would leave him without oil revenues, microchips, and the benefits of “parallel imports” currently provided by members of the “Friends of Peace” group. This would quickly lead to his downfall on the frontline and a domestic crisis. To strengthen this argument, Colombia, for example, could cut off the supply of its primary export product (how else can we explain Colombia’s involvement in this group?).

Meanwhile, “Ramstein” will focus on persuading Ukraine… or perhaps it already has? The much-discussed anonymous article in The Economist is now featured on the main page of Ukrainska Pravda, which speaks volumes to those who understand the deeper dynamics of the game.

What is the purpose of Biden’s trip to Germany on October 11-12, where he plans to meet with France and the UK? It’s entirely possible that the joint “peace formula” has already been agreed upon between President Xi and Biden. It’s likely already in place, as neither side wants to risk delaying the realization of their geopolitical interests beyond November 5. And this “formula” will likely be unsatisfactory not only to Ukraine, which is not surprising, but also to Russia. No matter how loudly Putin shouts about a multipolar world or waves his nuclear stick, there won’t be a place for him in a bipolar world.

Vladislav Olenchenko

Ukraine Front Lines