Amid the fog of war, it is hard to see how the future turn out and it is more evident in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. After more than six months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there appears to be no end to the war or a lasting resolution to the conflict. Although, Russians expected swift victory due to their perceived military superiority. However, this was the worst miscalculation which laid the foundation of the Russian failure in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Russian leadership has tried to readjust their war objectives through the escalating conflict in the East and South of Ukraine, a region which has been under conflict since 2014. Similarly, Ukrainian leadership has been proactively engaged with the International community especially Western countries to resist Russian aggression. The military aid sent by most of the Western countries has helped Ukraine to defend itself against a larger force. According to United Nations, the country has suffered more than $100 billion loss in terms of infrastructure collapse. Meanwhile, according to a study released by the Kyiv School of Economics, overall economic losses to Ukraine from the war range from $564 billion to $600 billion since the war started in February. However, the more conflict continues, the larger will be the impact. In the meantime, conflict in Ukraine is playing out bleak with chances of more escalation. The following are the most plausible scenarios.
Long War
With no quick end in sight as the war in Ukraine approaches its eighth month, its length has highlighted the crucial signs of an upcoming long war between Russia and Ukraine. The recent decision by a Russian president to drastically increase the size of his armed forces is the latest indication that the Russian president, despite suffering significant battlefield losses, is preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine.
The decree increased the target number of active-duty service members of the Russian armed forces by roughly 137,000, to 1.15 million, as of January of the following year. The sharp rise in number coupled with significant superiority in artillery and missiles are evidence of the fact that war in Ukraine could stretch over the year as neither side has shown readiness to negotiate or compromise for the sake of peace.
Expanding War
War by its nature is unpredictable, and the stakes are always high. In the current war between Russia and Ukraine, European security is at stake. The NATO members are increasingly worried about the future of the European continent and the role of NATO to maintain peace in the region. The war in Ukraine has still not shown signs of a decrease in hostilities between the two parties. Meanwhile, the US along with its European allies is supplying Ukraine with military aid to confront Russia. However, there are always chances that an accident, a mistake, or a misunderstanding might cause even a short war to grow into a larger one. The likelihood of conflict is far higher if the West and Russia engage in a proxy war in Ukraine. Subsequently, it cannot be ruled out that these indirect confrontations may one day turn direct. Then, the whole of Europe may very possibly experience war. Similarly, Sweden and Finland’s bid to join the NATO bloc in response to fear induced by the Russian attack on Ukraine has seeds of more conflict in the region. Though, Sweden and Finland must be part of the alliance, the heavy presence of foreign troops in both countries should be avoided to keep the situation under control.
Nuclear Exchange
The then-US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work in his 2015 congressional testimony warned that “Anyone who thinks they can control escalation through the use of nuclear weapons is playing with fire. Escalation is escalation, and nuclear use would be the ultimate escalation.” This fear of escalation has increased as a statements from various stakeholders mention nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is in charge of the greatest nuclear arsenal with an estimated 5,977 nuclear warheads vowed to protect Russia with all the capabilities and means at Russian disposal. The Russian president also issued a veiled nuclear threat to Ukraine and its Western allies by mentioning that the U.S established a precedent when it unleashed two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Moreover, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov who has been recently promoted to Colonel General has suggested that Moscow should consider launching a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine, an idea rejected by Kremlin.
On the opposite side, the current U.S president Joe Biden has warned that the risk of a nuclear Armageddon is at its highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Biden’s CIA Director William Burns also signaled to take the nuclear threat very seriously as everything is at stake. Likewise, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russian officials have begun to prepare their people for the possible use of nuclear weapons.
The spread of such statements from the various stakeholders depicts fear of nuclear escalation, a point of no return. Though, Russia has rejected the idea of putting nuclear in its war against Ukraine. However, as Ukraine’s forces are gaining ground in regions formally annexed by Russia can have seeds of escalation. As Russian doctrine allows the use of Nuclear weapons as a weapon of last resort, however, the definition of last resort depends on the Russian agenda. Equally important is the loss of Russian forces in the war as the recent order to mobilize the reserve forces is a harbinger of Russian weakness and loss in the war.
At the same time, Russia considers that the United States and its European ally are already participating in this conflict by providing Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, instructors and volunteers. Such presence on the ground can continue to further escalate, creating the risk of a global war in which nuclear weapons could be used.
Way Forward
The war in Ukraine is still underway and the world, especially the West, must be prepared for any possible scenario. The changes in the global order, post-Covid weak financial situation and now the war in Ukraine would have a consequential impact on international peace and stability. It’s high time for both parties [Ukraine and the WEST] to sit and find a way out of this situation. The alternative scenarios will all lead to destruction, more deaths of loved ones and outcomes too terrible to consider.
The Roving Reporter for Ukraine Front Lines
P.S. “We are against any “peace talks” of Ukraine with russia. We post such view many times, but one more reminder we would like to leave here, to all who don’t understand well our position or misinformed by other parties that attempted to blame we do nothing good. For all those who support spreading hate on our team, we suggest to look in the mirror and to find your enemy there; after that to step our route in 9 years 24/7 reporting to support Ukraine; & after that come up with your personal view. We appreciate all who find our reports useful.” Ukraine Front Lines team
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