Global Implications of Israel’s Strike on Iran: A Shift in Geopolitical Dynamics and Its Impact on Ukraine.
Cui prodest?
The first strategic consequences of Israel’s ongoing attack on Iran since Friday the 13th.
Legitimization of international aggression.
Israel has unilaterally decided which country is terrorist, fascist, militarist, etc. (underline the appropriate label yourself) and launched a strike. Any retaliatory actions are, of course, deemed vile, terrorist, and in violation of international law. They are carried out by Islamic fascists. Israel acted in self-defense against a potential threat (the treacherous enemy was about to attack peaceful Tel Aviv and build biolabs). The UN and global leaders barely expressed concern. Ukraine is caught in the middle—Iran is, after all, a de facto ally of Russia. Putin is thrilled: if Israel can get away with it, why can’t he?
Prolonged regional destabilization.
Oil prices are rising. Tehran is hit in three days, and Israel marches on! A blitzkrieg clearly didn’t work, and the question now is how to exit the situation. If the plan was to topple the regime, external aggression usually rallies people around the flag. Everyone loses—except oil-exporting countries in less volatile regions. Growth in gray-market oil trading. Thousands of smuggler tankers. Russia suddenly appears to be a beacon of stability. Russian oil stocks skyrocket. Putin pops the champagne.
A rift in NATO countries’ assessment of the aggression.
Turkey openly states that this war harms its economy and security. Logistics from the region to the EU are now at risk. Trump has a new angle to discuss with his mentor—Putin. He endorses Russia’s role as a mediator. It’s pure absurdity: an aggressor state in one region is being considered a peacemaker in another. Might as well invite North Korea next.
Nuclear armament.
Iran now has every reason to develop nuclear ballistic weapons. Ukraine, by the way, should as well. As should dozens of other countries—who knows, maybe they’ll be branded terrorists tomorrow.
Support for Ukraine.
Will clearly decrease. 20,000 of our air defense missiles are now more urgently needed by Israel, as it was treacherously attacked by Islamists. Patriots, jets, funding, media attention—it’s all heading to the Middle East.
If you don’t want to lose power—do as Bibi Netanyahu.
Local wars and external enemies guarantee political longevity. Stick to your electoral base; everyone else is a traitor.
The arms market and money that doesn’t stink.
In case anyone forgot, Russian drones like the Lancet and Orlan are based on Israeli patents and developments—sold to Putin by his friend Bibi. But not to us. Meanwhile, Iran sold its Shaheds. In exchange for Russian air defense systems against the same Israeli threat. Will Iran sell something to Putin tomorrow, in exchange for those same SAMs? Will Israel? After June 13—everyone will sell everything.
Sadly, I see no benefits for Ukraine.
Neither Israel nor the US considers Ukraine a strategic player.
There are many states in the world that live by their own rules. Destroying their infrastructure with missile strikes—without regime change, territorial control (there are 1000 km of desert and three countries between Israel and Iran), or integration into global trade and culture—only increases entropy and plays into the hands of autocracies, which appear best adapted to this version of world order.
