In Lipetsk region last night, there were powerful explosions as munitions on the enemy airfield burned and detonated following an attack by Ukrainian drones. Sevastopol also experienced loud explosions during an attack by Ukrainian naval and aerial drones. In Kursk region, a column of Russian troops was reportedly destroyed, and possibly more than one.
Once, in 1939, the all-powerful Nazi German air marshal Hermann Göring claimed, “No bomb will fall on the Reich capital!” By 1940, the Allies were bombing Germany, and by 1941, Soviet bombers had delivered a symbolic strike on Berlin. By 1944, Allied aviation was heavily bombarding the Hitler Reich. In 1945, Hermann Göring took his own life in Nuremberg prison.
The Russian advance into Kursk region today resembles the early attacks on Berlin – shock, panic, and the bewildered face of Hitler (Putin), with Russian pro-government “war correspondents” in social media expressing surprise that the enemy would occupy part of Kursk region just two and a half years ago.
Today, the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ operation on the border of Sumy and Kursk regions appears to have been a success. Over the past two to three days, more than 400 square kilometers of Russian territory have been seized, dozens of prisoners have been captured, and the “Sudza” gas metering station, which supplies Russian gas to Europe, has been brought under control.
Putin has suffered a severe blow to his image. The “father of the nation,” uncompromising dictator, and self-styled leader of all Rus’, who negotiates on equal terms with America, has received a humiliating slap from the Ukrainian army, which the Russian General Staff had long dismissed in their victory reports.
What is happening in Kursk region?
First: Ukrainian forces have demonstrated, for the first time since the unsuccessful autumn counteroffensive of 2023, that they are capable of bold, sudden, and effective operations.
Second: It turns out that the Russian monster truly stands on clay feet – the border in Kursk region was guarded by sparse posts of border guards and conscripts who preferred to surrender quickly rather than fight to the last for Kremlin’s interests. The much-publicized Kadyrov “Akhmat,” assigned to guard the state border in Kursk region, was the first to flee, which is more than symbolic – other Putin’s satellites will betray him just as quickly.
Third: The powerful Russian empire, as it turns out, has no reserves to counter a breakthrough by two or three Ukrainian brigades – all forces and resources are engaged in Donbas, and there is simply no one left to fight for Mother Russia in Kursk region.
In reality, Russia’s strength today relies on the inflated wealth of Moscow and St. Petersburg, on the remnants of oil and gas exports, and on Soviet nuclear legacy. There is nothing more – not even an extra division to defend Moscow from Prigozhin and Kursk from the Ukrainian forces.
What will happen next?
No one knows the plans of the Ukrainian command. In Russian pro-government circles, they are speculating whether the Ukrainians will move on to Kurchatov to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant and then possibly exchange it for the Zaporizhzhia plant (a daring plan), or whether they will draw Russian military resources into the captured border area, thereby easing the defense of Donbas and improving Ukraine’s position in potential negotiations.
In any case, the success of both sides depends on available resources and the boldness of military plans. If the Ukrainian side had ten free brigades in reserve, the Armed Forces of Ukraine could well expand their success and occupy (liberate) the entire Kursk region, radically changing the geopolitical situation (and the internal Russian situation in particular) ahead of potential peace negotiations.
Most likely, such reserves are not available to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, just as they are not available to the Kremlin. Victory in this struggle may belong not only to the more enduring and patient but also to the bolder and more creative. Who knows, perhaps Ukrainian soldiers will suddenly find themselves at the walls of the Kremlin tomorrow? And what will happen to Putin and his regime then?
The ways of the Lord are inscrutable.
Tags: Russia russia ukraine war Ukraine
