Nothing epoch-making happened this week. But there were some interesting things around talks about cluster munitions provisions for Ukraine as well as about possibilities to join NATO.
There has been no strategic advance by the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front. We should not be fooled by the clickbait headlines of certain YouTube channels: all that is really happening are operational and tactical actions. Yes, they are necessary, but it’s too early for victorious relays.
I will say more: even the liberation of Bakhmut, which is becoming more and more likely, will have a very powerful psychological impact on the enemy, but it will not change the course of the war dramatically.
However, the cluster munitions that the United States has promised to provide us with are serious. Each such munition, which can be an artillery shell, a HIMARS missile, or an air bomb, ejects from 10 to 300 small submunitions that explode and destroy manpower and equipment in an area with a radius of 300 meters.
Of course, this is most effective in open terrain, for example, against a column on the march, but the enemy’s trenches and trenches will not protect us very well.
The availability of such weapons will significantly increase our offensive capabilities.
But whether this will be a turning point will depend on the amount of cluster munitions provided.
I would like to take this opportunity to dispel amateurish fears that cluster munitions pose a threat to civilians, as unexploded submunitions actually turn into subtle mines.
This applies to the outdated Soviet models that the sub-empire has been using against us since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. And the United States has long implemented technical solutions that significantly increase the reliability of cluster munitions, which means that there are practically no mines left. In fact, that is why the United States has not joined the international convention on the abolition of such weapons. And not only the United States.
In general, there are already so many mines in Ukrainian soil – both enemy and ours – that a certain number of unexploded submunitions will not affect the unfortunate situation.
One of the notable events is President Zelensky’s campaign tour abroad. Campaigning because he is trying to gather votes in support of Ukraine’s membership in NATO at the upcoming summit.
I am convinced that nothing will change from this tour: those who are oriented towards Moscow, such as the Bulgarian president or the Hungarian prime minister, will remain against Ukraine. And those who are focused on Brussels will support us anyway.
But we are still talking about diplomatic and political maneuvers for an uncertain future. We are concerned about what is happening here and now.
Two squadrons of NATO attack aircraft today are incomparably more important than any assurances and promises of security after the war.
Yes, there is reason to hope that we will be offered direct security agreements with a number of countries, including the nuclear-armed UK. But then. As soon as possible. Absolutely. If it works out… This is to say that our security is our concern, not J. Biden’s or even B. Johnson’s.
By the way, I constantly communicate with people from Europe. There, utility rates and prices for almost everything have risen significantly. Yes, the Europeans are paying for the war unleashed by the under-empire with money, and Ukraine is paying with their lives. But it is incorrect and unproductive, to put it mildly, to blame the allies for being on the sidelines.
And finally. Official speakers should not be told that the enemy suffers five times more losses on defense than we do on offense if there is no convincing argument to support this.
I repeat once again: in a substantive sense, the war has now moved into the territory of truth. That is, encouraging but fictitious, victorious but propaganda, reassuring but exaggerated stories no longer work. Because they are not believed. Only facts that are confirmed by various sources convince.
If our government does not understand this, then even the most brilliant NATO prospects will not affect the decline in trust in it.
Oleksandr Kochetkov
Tags: cluster rockets in ukraine NATO russia ukraine war Ukraine
