Breakthrough Ukrainian nature

After taking the necessary pause, I now have the right to speak up following the fact that our political leadership has effectively acknowledged the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region.

When there was much talk last year about the Ukrainian counteroffensive, I dreamed it would be something like what we are witnessing now: a swift raid by our mechanized brigades into historically Russian territory, defended mostly by myths of Russian greatness. This would be followed by an unexpected strike behind enemy lines, leading to the defeat of one of the invasion groups through joint efforts of defense forces and raid brigades.

This would resemble the successful actions of our defenders near Kyiv in 2022 and during the Balakliya counteroffensive operation. It would also align with the modern tactics of Ukrainian armed forces, such as those of the peasant army led by Nestor Makhno.

However, the decision was made to push through minefields and enemy fortifications — with a predictable result. A surprise was the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro near Krynky, which was held at the cost of Ukrainian heroes’ lives, but eventually abandoned.

Now we see a well-masked, well-prepared, and successfully executed breakthrough into enemy territory. There is effective coordination between satellite and drone reconnaissance, encirclement and isolation of enemy strongholds, and rapid movement of reconnaissance and sabotage groups, which creates panic among the enemy.

It is extremely important that the breakthrough was not led by staff generals with numerous stars on their epaulettes. No, there are commanders with practical combat experience on the front lines making decisions independently based on the operational situation, rather than orders from the center with significant political undertones.

I am sure that this operation was not coordinated in detail with our partners. They would never have approved it.

What happens next will depend on the goals set for this operation.

Capturing the gas metering station in Sudzha? Too minor for the forces involved. And blocking the gas pipeline could be done much more easily from Ukrainian territory.

Capturing the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant? Too risky. There would be too many unpredictable consequences. Therefore, it is unlikely. If fierce battles near the nuclear power plant begin, our European partners will definitely take notice.

Holding Russian territories for bargaining in potential negotiations? This will not work because the Kremlin does not care about its own population or its own territories. It will not negotiate over them. The Russians will simply start leveling their own populated areas with cluster munitions and multiple launch rocket systems, as they have done in Belgorod Oblast during the entry of the RBK. In a few months, there will be nothing left to hold. This, of course, unless we get permission to use F-16s with long-range missiles over Russian territory.

Drawing enemy forces away to reduce pressure on the Kharkiv front? Quite possible and already partially happening, at least concerning enemy assault aviation.

I hope our command has carefully calculated not only the preparation and execution of the breakthrough but also the completion of this brilliant operation. But one very important goal has already been achieved: the myth, carefully propagated by the Kremlin — that the aggressor’s forces are slowly but steadily advancing and nothing threatens this advance. Therefore, sooner or later Ukraine will fall, and there is no point in supporting it, so potential negotiations will be exclusively about options for Ukraine’s capitulation — has been shattered.

But the Ukrainian Armed Forces are skilled at acting creatively and effectively, disrupting enemy plans. If only they would start doing the same in the rear.

Alexandr Kochetkov