Argumentation of Ukraine’s victory

Large-scale offensive and counter-offensive operations are being prepared at the fronts. I am confident in our victory. It's not a blind faith but a sober analysis of possibilities and probabilities. What are the prerequisites for the defeat of the under-empire?

1. The absence of a clear specific goal of the war and, accordingly, the criteria for victory. Ukraine’s goal is to liberate the occupied territories and achieve peace on Ukrainian terms. And Putin has a goal, but it cannot be said aloud. He wants the world leaders to recognize him personally rather than Russia, as equal to them and go with him to a new division of the world. But this goal of the war is in no way suitable for the whole country. Still whole.

2. The management system of the under-empire is not designed for creative and constructive tasks. It was created to rob the Russian population and natural resources. With the help of a crowbar, lockpicks and brass knuckles, you can rob someone, but you can’t build something useful.

3. Even total mobilization does not ensure victory. Because security and military logistics become the bottleneck. Besides, the under-empire cannot equip, arm, train, and most importantly, deliver more than 200 thousand people to specific points on the front. The fact that we are able to utilize such portions has already been shown by the current war. So one swordsman in a narrow passage can hold back a whole crowd, because they can approach him only one by one.

4. Weapons of mass destruction do not provide a turning point in favor of the under-empire either. There are no adequate targets for nuclear weapons, the destruction of which leads to the surrender of Ukraine. Again, if you recall the true goal of Putin, then nuclear weapons do not bring it closer.

5. Russia cannot win a protracted war of attrition. Because its economy is 3.2% of the world's economy. Moreover, this figure is formed mainly due to oil and gas sales. And the NATO countries helping Ukraine have a share of 32%, and this is largely the share of high-tech products. Besides, non-NATO-member states also help us. 

6. Prigozhin's convicts will not become "cannon fodder for the Russian victory." The Wagner Group recruited more than forty thousand of them, and only 20 of the luckiest ones were released under an amnesty. That's five hundredths of a percent! Then the Wagner militants showed them a sledgehammer and convinced them to fight again. So recruiting is a guaranteed path to the grave, but not to freedom. Convicts are not idiots. Given such war scenarios, they prefer to stay in prison.

7. What else? Iranian drones and missiles? Yes, drones are capable of terrorizing peaceful cities and destroying infrastructure. But we have learned how to shoot them down and restore the infrastructure. Ballistic missiles are a serious factor. But first, they must appear in the under-empire, and Iran is not eager to supply them. Again, we have something to oppose them. And it's not just missile defense system.

8. What else does the under-empire have, what is such a terrible military secret leading to victory? Only the unsurpassed talent of their commanders like Prigozhin, who buries his military group near Bakhmut, which he has already taken ten times, no less. Or the production genius of figures like Rogozin, the call sign "Superass."Will a propaganda stream with a strength of forty degrees from Medvedev ensure a turning point for the under-empire at the front?

I do not see! If anyone sees a hidden reserve of the Kremlin - tell me, do not be shy. But do not offer pioneer slogans "Russia has always defeated all enemies." Yes, sometimes it won, but only when Ukrainians were forced to fight as part of its army.

Oleksandr Kochetkov

Ukraine Front Lines

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