As reported by Flot2017, an assessment of the situation along various frontlines was published by Kostiantyn Mashovets, coordinator of the “Information Resistance” group, on his Facebook page (shared without edits).
As of the morning of July 2, 2025 – “briefly, from different directions.”
1. Sumy direction
Intense fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the incursion made by the enemy’s Kursk military group, part of its “Sever” force grouping, into the border zone of Ukraine’s Sumy region. Both sides are actively launching attacks and counterattacks. In particular, over the past two days, Ukrainian forces have carried out a series of counterattacks in the tactical zone, pushing back the enemy’s forward units: to the north of Andriivka, east of Yunakivka, and northeast of the Sadky hamlet. The total area of liberated territory amounts to up to 4 square kilometers.
In turn, the enemy redeployed a certain number of units from the Yunakivka area to Tyotkino (Kursk region, Russia), including elements of the 217th and 119th Parachute Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division, and reinforced them with units from the 346th Motorized Rifle Regiment. They launched a series of attacks along the Tyotkino–Ryzhivka axis, aiming to push Ukrainian Armed Forces forward units back beyond the state border line, achieving an advance of up to 150 meters.
Assault units from the 83rd and 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigades east of Yablunivka achieved even less progress, advancing up to 100 meters.
As I understand it, the enemy’s 106th Airborne Division’s regrouping to another direction is, to put it mildly, “somewhat delayed.” Apparently, the command of the “Sever” force grouping is forced to continue using parts of this formation directly on the Sumy front.
2. Kharkiv direction
The enemy has somewhat intensified activity directly in the area of Vovchansk, with up to 8–10 clashes per day. Forward units of the former 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, now part of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA), “named after Latvian Riflemen,” attacked Ukrainian Armed Forces forward positions near the “Oil Plant,” achieving an advance of 250–300 meters.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Armed Forces units launched an attack on the enemy in the border zone of Kharkiv region, north of Vysoka Yaruga, where the enemy had previously penetrated several kilometers, and completely pushed them back beyond the state border.
It appears that at present the command of the enemy’s 6th CAA is focused on another division—the 69th Motorized Rifle Division—operating in the Kupiansk direction. Therefore, this increased enemy activity is most likely an attempt to tactically improve the forward positions of the 68th msd by conducting limited-scale attacks solely with its forward units, within the city limits of Vovchansk.
3. Toretsk direction
It is clear that the command of the enemy’s 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies (CAA), whose forces and assets operate in this area, are currently regrouping. The intensity of enemy attacking and assault actions has decreased over the past several days of last and this week, down to 6–8 attacks per day.
At the same time, the enemy continues to focus efforts on two main directions: Romanivka–Katerynivka, where units of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA) are advancing, and Deliivka–Bila Hora, where the recently deployed 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st CAA is conducting attacks.
It appears that the enemy command has decided to “consolidate” the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) within a single sector, uniting both of its divisions—the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions — along one direction. Currently, both divisions are operating south of Kostiantynivka, attempting to advance from Novooleynivka toward Yablunivka and from Romanivka toward Katerynivka.
Meanwhile, units and formations of the 51st CAA are operating directly from Toretsk, trying to simultaneously advance toward Bila Hora, Pleshchiivka, and also toward Katerynivka.
The intent is clear: to flank the strong Ukrainian defense node at Shcherbynivka from both west and east. So far, the enemy has only managed to approach Shcherbynivka itself from the Toretsk side (in the area of Korolenka Street).
4. Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions
The enemy command of the “Center” group continues to concentrate efforts on its flanks—around its tactical salient north of Vozdvyzhenka, both directly toward Kostiantynivka and in the direction of Myrnohrad–Pokrovsk (where forces from the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies (CAA), the 68th Army Corps, and the 2nd CAA are operating). Additionally, efforts are focused southwest of Pokrovsk in the offensive sector of the 41st CAA (90th Tank Division, 35th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades), which has been reinforced by units from several formations of the 2nd CAA (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade).
At present, despite a high level of activity by enemy forward units—averaging 30 to 40 attacks and assaults per day—their advance pace in these directions has started to slow down.
In particular:
On the Pokrovsk direction, the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and part of the forces of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, after capturing the villages of Kopteve and Malynivka, were forced to engage in prolonged and bloody battles for Novotoretske and Novoekonomichne with minimal, or even no, progress.
The units of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army, operating to the south, have been unable for several weeks to break through to Novoekonomichne from the Myroliubivka side, despite the distance being no more than 1.5–2 kilometers.
Meanwhile, the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army continues to crawl along the Pokrovsk-Bakhmut road from Novooleinivka to Yablunivka. Moreover, the further they go, the slower the advance becomes. Additionally, the Ukrainian Armed Forces stubbornly hold Popiv Yar and the area around the village of Poltavka, maintaining the capability to flank and counter the advance of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division.
It is obvious that the command of the enemy’s “Center” operational group is currently trying to solve two tasks simultaneously in this area — to break through to the settlement of Rodynske (in order to bypass Pokrovsk from the north and northwest) and to reach the approaches to Kostiantynivka through Yablunivka, from the southwest, bypassing the Kleban-Byk Reservoir from the west. The only problem for the enemy is that this requires simultaneous actions in directions that DIVERGE.
For now, the enemy has a SIGNIFICANT advantage in the number of combat-ready assault infantry and can therefore afford this. However, if I were in the position of the Ukrainian command, I would still try to take advantage of this obvious tactical mistake of the enemy and “cut off” one of their “tentacles.” The other matter is that, apparently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently lack the forces and capabilities to do this.
On the opposite flank, where the enemy’s 41st Army Corps, supported by part of the forces of the 2nd Army Corps, is attempting to advance along both banks of the Solona River and, at the same time, within the sector of the 90th Tank Division, is making persistent attempts to “break through” into the Dnipropetrovsk region, its command is apparently working to reach the Muravka–Novomykolaivka line.
Units of the 137th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades are stubbornly attacking along the Solona River (from the recently captured Novosergiivka), while the 90th Tank Division, supported by a couple of attached “assault” motorized rifle regiments, is attacking from the south of Kotliarivka. At present, the enemy has effectively reached the outskirts of both villages and is likely preparing for their final assault.
At the same time, the 90th Tank Division is engaged in stubborn fighting to hold the settlement of Horikhove and is attempting to break through directly towards Novopavlivka to the north of it. So far – without much success.
5. Novopavlivka (or Southern Donbas, whichever you prefer) direction
The most “problematic” (and I would say, threatening) direction for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). It is obvious that Ukrainian troops are currently suffering a very significant defeat here, at least on a tactical scale, which threatens, with a high likelihood, to escalate into an operational-tactical level. In fact, the entire Ukrainian defense system south of the Vovcha River in Donetsk region has collapsed. The enemy has deeply and confidently penetrated the battle formations of the Ukrainian units and formations in this area, advancing at quite high speeds (up to 10-12 square kilometers per day). The forces and means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operating in this direction are currently unable not only to “block” but even to stop this enemy breakthrough.
The enemy’s 5th, 36th, and 29th Combined Arms Armies (CAA), reinforced by elements of the 35th CAA and several Marine brigades, are SUCCESSFULLY advancing simultaneously on multiple directions and sectors, in particular:
The 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade, part of the enemy’s 29th CAA, has deeply penetrated the flank of the Ukrainian units defending both the Pokrovske and directly the Novopavlivka directions along the southern bank of the Vovcha River. At the same time, having captured the villages of Zaporizhzhia and Yalta, its forward units have already reached the Zirka-Piddubne line.
Units and formations of the enemy’s 36th Combined Arms Army (including the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade, reinforced by the 336th Separate Marine Brigade, elements of the 40th Marine Brigade, and several “mobilized” motorized rifle regiments, such as the “assault” 1443rd Motorized Rifle Regiment) have consistently captured the villages of Vesele, Fedorivka, Komar, Perebudova, and have effectively taken full control of the area around the confluence of the Mokri, Yala, and Vovcha rivers.
Meanwhile, the strongest formation within the enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Group, the 5th Combined Arms Army (including the 127th Motorized Rifle Division, the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade), reinforced by several units from the 69th Separate Security Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, has captured the flanking area of Shevchenko – Burlatske – Pryvilne – Vilne Pole and continues to advance successfully in the northwest and northern directions. In particular, it reached the line of Zelene Pole – Novosilka (69th Security Brigade), broke through to the southern outskirts of the village of Voskresenka (60th Motorized Rifle Brigade), while simultaneously making successful progress west of Fedorivka (127th Motorized Rifle Division).
In other words, in my opinion, the situation on this front looks far more dangerous than on the Sumy direction and threatens more severe consequences—both operationally and later, strategically.
If the situation here does not stabilize soon, Ukraine’s military-political leadership should prepare for the formation of the Pavlohrad operational direction and anticipate VERY SIGNIFICANT difficulties on the Zaporizhzhia front.
At the same time, it is necessary to consider the possibility of the enemy conducting an operational offensive operation against the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. In this regard, military intelligence (at all levels, from tactical to strategic) will become especially important in the coming months.
