Since Russia invaded Ukraine 8 months ago, there has been a protracted standoff between the two sides. Although Russia’s initial goal of capturing Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, was unsuccessful, it has shifted the emphasis of its military operations to the Ukrainian border regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. The Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts/provinces of Ukraine have been formally admitted as a part of the Russian Federation, another provocative move by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The recent Russian action follows the old playbook of hastily organized referendums used in 2014 to formally annex Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. The dangerous Russian move to annex 15 percent, some 40,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory has been condemned internationally as it is a flagrant breach of the UN charter. Additionally, it demonstrates Russia’s contempt for the obligations placed on a state by the United Nations Charter as a permanent member of the UNSC.
Russian Victory and Ukraine
As War is a highly unpredictable business, and the course of the Ukraine war just like any other war has defied the expectations of most analysts. Ukraine has fared better thus far against the Russian military, but this may not always be the case. Russia’s triumph may take many different shapes as it modified its military goals during the conflict. At the outset of the operation, its goal was to capture Kyiv and impose a puppet regime. However, it appears that Russia is actively attempting to partition the country, leaving part of it under Ukrainian government authority with weak infrastructure while technically annexing certain parts of Ukraine. In other words, to serve its own goals, Russia is practically turning Ukraine into a failed state. It is also effectively crippling Ukraine by employing devastating cyber-attacks and disinformation tools backed by military operations.
European security at Stake?
Post-war Europe will no longer be the same. The European security architecture has been harmed as a consequence of the Russian attack on Ukraine. There is no longer sense that the European Union (EU) or NATO can maintain peace on the continent. Instead, NATO is bolstering its presence in Eastern European member states to defend against Russia. Similarly, the NATO members are vowing to increase their defense budget to maximize their security against Russia. Most of the NATO members are dependent on U.S security assurances which creates a dilemma for many states. Though strong defense should always be the focus, however, countries are already under economic stress due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, this conflict has also shifted the focus of many states to prioritize their military modernization programs instead of filling the loopholes such as health systems that emerged during the Covid-19 crisis.
Similarly, the prospect of nuclear war has been lurking over the continent as the Russian president has vowed to defend his country with all available means if its survival is threatened. Meanwhile, the annexation of current regions of Ukraine into Russian federations technically permits Russian leadership to use nuclear under the veneer of threat to the state as its nuclear doctrine allows the first use of these weapons under such circumstances.
Although both parties are trying to maintain the fight on a conventional level, if the conflict does escalate to the nuclear level, such scenarios can’t be ignored.
The possibility of a significant influx of refugees entering EU member states poses a second danger to European security. Millions of Ukrainians and Russians are escaping the continuing violence in multiple directions, with the majority looking for refuge in EU countries. The already overburdened EU’s refugee policy will be made even worse by this significant refugee surge into Europe. This will give populist politicians a fair playing field to capitalize on anti-refugee emotions and cast doubt on the roles of NATO and the EU.
Third, for industrial needs and domestic needs, the European nations rely substantially on Russian gas. Russia met 40% of the gas needs of EU nations in 2021. Germany, which has the biggest economy in Europe, was one of them in 2021, followed by Italy. The wholesale price of gas has increased by 210% during the same period, notwithstanding Russia’s 88% reduction in gas exports to Europe. According to IEA statistics, the EU imported 1.2 million BPD of refined oil products and 2.2 million barrels per day (BPD) of crude in 2021, including 0.7 million BPD through a pipeline. Similar to this, as winter draws near, demand will rise, intensifying the continent’s energy problem.
Fourth, the Covid-19 Pandemic has already put a strain on food security. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, however, has put further strain on the food security of the EU. The data demonstrate that both nations serve as the world’s breadbasket. The major agricultural suppliers of wheat, maize, sunflower oil, and fertilizers are Russia and Ukraine. For their basic food supply, many regions are very reliant on imports from these two nations. These nations supply the EU with fertilizers, seafood, and sunflower oil. 59% of the EU’s imports of potassium fertilizer come from Belarus and Russia, while 31% of its imports of nitrogen fertilizer come from war-torn Russia.
Way Forward
The war in Ukraine has been a source of human suffering particularly for Ukrainians. The Infrastructure has been wrecked, many have died, and the problem is still unfolding. The Western nations must not underestimate Russia, but they must also prevent it from undermining Ukrainian sovereignty. The Ukrainian military should be strengthened, but it also needs to lay the groundwork for an end to the conflict before it gets out of hand. Similar to this, Western nations must diversify their reliance on Russian gas and oil by forming new alliances, particularly with Middle Eastern nations like Qatar. At the same time, it must prevent Russia from sowing division inside the European Union to further its sinister goals of shattering NATO and the EU.
The Roving Reporter for Ukraine Front Lines
Tags: russia ukraine war
Where possible Western nations should reduce their reliance on gas and oil as much as possible, not cosy up to different authoritarian regime with a horrific human rights record.