The rise of the European Shield: a new security alliance for the 21st century

It looks like we might soon witness the emergence of a “European Shield.” Today’s visit to Kyiv is no coincidence.

A promising European security alliance is taking shape — potentially as an alternative to NATO.

The United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland, and of course, Ukraine.

According to public data for 2025, the combined military spending of France, Germany, Poland, the UK, and Ukraine totals $337.7 billion (!) — more than twice that of Russia ($149.0 billion).

This includes significant spending increases — for example, Germany (+28%) and Poland (+31%).

European countries and Ukraine possess more modern equipment, including aircraft carriers and precision systems, while Russia has more tanks (5,750) and armored vehicles — which, in modern warfare, are largely useless and burn nicely, even when paired with barbecue grills.

A potential alliance could include:

• Joint arms procurement through the European Defence Fund

• Enhanced cooperation in cybersecurity and air defense (e.g., the European Sky Shield Initiative)

• Creation of joint military command centers

• Exchange of military technologies and intelligence

• Joint space programs

• France, Germany and the UK could become the core with Poland and Ukraine adding geostrategic depth.

These countries could become the center of European security, given their combined GDP (over $10 trillion versus Russia’s $2 trillion) and technological leadership.

France, Germany and the UK could become the core with Poland and Ukraine adding geostrategic depth, especially on the eastern flank.

Ukraine’s role:

• As a frontline nation, Ukraine could become a key partner and a hub for deterring Russian threats

• A main testing ground for new military innovations

• A training center for troops

• A provider of security services to European countries

• A key producer of affordable, modern, and effective weaponry

A combined army would include:

• 1.5 million personnel

• 3,676 aircraft

• 3,633 helicopters

• 1,375 ships — including around 253 warships (33 submarines and 220 surface ships)

• 410 nuclear warheads

Yes, today’s talks included discussions about a ceasefire — but the crazy neighbor isn’t going anywhere.

That’s why: “If you want peace — prepare for war.”

We can debate, but this is potentially one of the most important initiatives for the countries whose leaders visited Kyiv today.

Anatoliy Amelin

Ukraine Front Lines

Tags: Analytics France Germany poland Politics Ukraine United Kingdom