Will peace come after the latest statements from the U.S. President and his team?

No. This only means one thing—that Trump has, for the first time, formulated his negotiation stance in the form of a 30-day ceasefire along the current front line.

Since U.S. military aid to Ukraine was simultaneously unblocked, it is clear that the Americans are not confident that Putin will agree to Trump’s proposal. Now, it is up to Putin to respond to Trump’s offer.

Previously, Russia formally incorporated five Ukrainian regions into its territory, and halting hostilities would mean that Russia is abandoning its goal of fully occupying all these regions. Without such a decision and Russia’s renunciation of its plans to seize Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, a ceasefire is impossible.

In my view, for Putin to agree to a truce, his army must first be stopped on the battlefield—proving that he is incapable of destroying Ukraine through military means. And to halt the front, Ukraine must eliminate more Russian troops than Putin can mobilize—approximately 40,000 per month. At such a level of losses, the front would grind to a halt, and any further offensives would become unfeasible for Russia. This is the only strategy that guarantees forcing Putin into peace.

Therefore, if Trump wants Putin to accept his peace plan, he must demonstrate that the U.S. is prepared to provide Ukraine with significantly greater military aid than before—not just to contain Russia, but to inflict a series of military defeats.

If the U.S. and the EU maintain military aid at 2024 levels but increase financial support for equipping Ukraine with modern drones, electronic warfare (EW), signals intelligence (SIGINT), and communication systems, Ukraine will, within a year, establish a true drone and anti-drone front. This would result in Russian infantry being eliminated at the necessary scale for victory while significantly reducing Ukrainian losses. Ukraine already has the trained personnel, technology, and organizational structures—what’s missing is the resources for large-scale implementation.

Only military defeats and the loss of offensive capability will force Putin to agree to peace.

Yuriy Butusov

Ukraine Front Lines

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