What exactly the West’s miscalculations regarding Russia have led to today’s catastrophe

Heated discussions arose at the YES forum after MP, Deputy Chairman в National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee Egor Chernev frankly explained to our foreign friends what exactly the West’s miscalculations regarding Russia have led to today’s catastrophe and what could lead to future tragedies.

1. The idea that Russia could be democratized was a mistake. After all, this country has never been democratic for any significant period in its history. 

Tyranny is a centuries-old social and political tradition in Russia, and as long as it exists within its current borders, it will always gravitate toward dictatorship. Only an external strategic defeat and the collapse of Russia can change this tradition.

2. It was a mistake to consider Russia as a strategic partner and a friendly state.

Because of its imperial tradition, Russia has always viewed the surrounding space only as an object of conquest and expansion.

All of Russia’s cooperation with Europe has been about capturing energy and raw materials markets, information space, and subversion.

3. It is a mistake for the West to think that Russia can be used as a counterweight to China.

For Russia, to abandon its alliance with China would mean abandoning its global goal of reshaping spheres of influence in Eurasia. It is naive to count on this.

4. It was a mistake to think that Russia thinks rationally and will put economic benefits above ideological and political ones.

Unfortunately, the West, which likes to talk about its values, for some reason decided that our enemy had lost its own imperial values.

It has forgotten that Russia has repeatedly engaged in economically unprofitable adventures for the sake of geopolitical gains due to its ambitions.

5. The idea that Ukraine’s membership in NATO would lead to war was a mistake. As it turned out, it was Ukraine’s neutral status that gave Russia the opportunity to attack, while Putin did not dare to attack the Baltic states under the NATO umbrella.

Our Western friends who attended the forum, including MEP Radoslaw Sikorski, former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, and political analyst Fareed Zakaria, had to admit most of these mistakes. But, unfortunately, there was a debate about one of the main ones. 

Many in the West still believe that Russia can be democratized within its current borders, and that a notional Navalny can turn Russia into a civilized state.

Fortunately, many of those present at the forum supported Even Chernev’s position. So there is hope that we can convince our allies. Let’s keep working.

Based on Evgen Chernev’s publication.

Ukraine Front Lines

Tags: Russia russia ukraine war