What does the Kremlin gain from the Kakhovka HPP blow up?
What does the Kremlin gain from the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP dam (Kakhovskaya Hydro Power Plant)?
1. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine had plans to carry out offensive actions in the southern direction, they are essentially no longer in place. Russian troops can concentrate on the eastern directions, having transferred all their reserves there.
2. The grain deal, which ensured the protection of African countries from famine, has almost collapsed, as at least three NIBULON facilities are located in the region of potential flooding. In other words, we physically have nothing more to supply, while Russian grain supplies are growing in price and completely removing all obstacles, because otherwise people in Africa will die of hunger.
3. The Kremlin no longer needs to finance the heavily subsidized territories that took away significant funds, where the everyday problems of the population turned them against the occupying power. One way or another, this is cost savings. No people – no problems.
4. The international media, which since October have been worked on by Russian agents in such dumps as the Washington Post, The New York Times and others, in the context of Ukrainians blowing up the dam, have quietly entered the #noteverythingiseclear mode… At the same time, the narrative that the explosion of gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea was organized by the Ukrainian side has intensified. Because they found the right shoe…
5. The natural disaster will entail significant expenditures of financial resources from both Ukrainian and Western budgets. Ukraine’s exhaustion will increase.
6. The next stage of blackmail will be the ZNPP, the accident at which will cause even more large-scale consequences. In addition, Russian intelligence services are quite capable of organizing a “false flag operation” at one of their nuclear facilities (e.g., Rostov NPP) to accuse Ukrainian intelligence of committing a retaliatory act and further sway international public opinion in their favor.
7. There is no longer any talk of Ukrainian troops entering Crimea. It was Crimea, not any other territory, that was Putin’s “Koshcheev’s egg.” It does not matter that there is no water there. The main thing is that Crimea remains in Putin’s hands. Even if it is uninhabited. Crimea is the alpha and omega of his imperial status.
8. The fear of Western eggless politicians will only increase. They were afraid of escalation, and he gave them escalation, promising that it would be worse. And, therefore, they will say that it is necessary to sacrifice for the sake of salvation… Moreover, they will sacrifice Ukrainian interests for the sake of allegedly saving Ukrainian lives.
9. The position of Sergei Shoigu, who has been practically taken by the balls by Prigozhin, is strengthening. Because, now, at least one of the directions of a potential Ukrainian offensive remains secure. And, the task of genocide of the Ukrainian people is close to being fully realized.
10. Propaganda will ensure the development of the narrative #noteverythingisclear, creating grounds for new strikes on the Ukrainian side, which will be motivated, allegedly, by retaliation for the disaster organized by the Russians themselves.
The benefits of the planned and executed operation to blow up the hydroelectric power plant provide Putin with the desired scenario.
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The translation leaves something to be desired. For instance, "eggs" is a Slavicism for testicles. It's not used in this sense in English; "Koshcheev's egg" means nothing in English.
As to the analysis, there is a lot of evidence that south through Kherson was not a main point of entry of the counteroffensive, as the bridges in that area were highly risky for troops to cross even before the breaking of the dam. The flooding has also forced the enemy to move back from the front, makiing it harder to shell the free Ukrainian territories.