Categories: ANALYTICS

After the White House ambush the new defense partnership to be formed

Ukraine as a bargaining chip: the US strategy and the need for a new approach

I think we will see the formation of a new defense partnership. Which will include the EU, Britain, Ukraine, Turkey. Maybe Canada and Australia. And the shares of Rheinmetall, Airbus, BAE, Leonardo will continue to climb.

It is simply dangerous when your security depends on such tyrants. And it does depend a lot – logistics chains, service, software updates, telemetry on American servers, satellite data.

By the way, last November the Europeans launched a 10 billion euro project to create their own satellite constellation to replace Starlink. Of course, it is a matter of years, but they are already doing it.

Today’s mass messages of support for Ukraine and Zelensky by European leaders are important and indicative. And Erdogan’s statements that Turkey is not against Ukraine in NATO are also.

It will be expensive. The money has to be taken somewhere. The EU has intensified discussions about creating a defense bank like the EBRD, and about issuing a joint debt instrument.

The British are cutting international aid spending in half to finance the defense budget, are considering whether to reduce social security, and are already discussing a “war surcharge” to VAT.

The Americans have opened a multipolar Pandora’s box. Even if they calm down these idiots who got into the White House, it will be too late.

Europe bought American weapons, all these unrealistically overpriced wunderwaffles, because they came with security guarantees. Buying the F-35 is not just about a latest-generation air platform. It’s about the fact that the US will always fit in for you. And for decades they didn’t even want to sell us the F-16 precisely because they didn’t plan to fit in. Neither Trump, nor Grandpa, nor Obama.

Trust is built over decades and destroyed in weeks. If real mechanisms for strengthening the defense capabilities of the EU and Britain work, investments will flow, and the purchase of their own weapons systems will begin – no one will roll it back later when the White House says “we were joking, this was the negotiating strategy.”

If only Europe would find real leaders for the new times.

Yuri Gaidai

Ukraine Front Lines