Categories: ANALYTICS

Trump’s ceasefire pleas ignored: Putin’s real game is a “Peace Deal” on his terms

After several public requests from Trump to Putin for support in a 30-day ceasefire, Putin has once again dismissed Trump’s peace proposals.

Comparing the statements from the White House and the Kremlin, it’s clear that Putin continues to insist on his own conditions for agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire: Ukraine must halt mobilization, and the West must stop providing military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, there is no mention of halting mobilization in Russia or stopping arms production in Russian factories—Putin remains silent on these points.

It’s obvious that Putin is deliberately putting forward demands that are impossible to fulfill. This is done to shift the focus of negotiations. He is not interested in discussing some temporary 30-day ceasefire with Trump. What he really wants is to negotiate with Trump on the terms of a “peace agreement” between Ukraine and Russia, which would ultimately lead to the transfer of occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia, the forced neutrality of Ukraine, the implementation of the “Russian language” policy, and restrictions on the size and military capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Right now, we are witnessing a battle between two “negotiation machines.” So far, the score is 0:2 in favor of the Kremlin.

Since public pleas aren’t working, and the Trump administration is not ready to launch an operation of “coercion to peace” against Russia, Trump is left with only one option to achieve his stated goal: forcing Ukraine to make peace on Putin’s terms.

But Trump will fail at that too. And then his options will be limited to fighting the Houthis and Mexican drug cartels, dismantling the European Union, and moonlighting as an advertising agent for Tesla… or, alternatively, daring to launch a “coercion to peace” operation against Moscow. Unfortunately, I estimate the likelihood of that happening to be less than 10%.

Vladislav Olenchenko

Ukraine Front Lines