The illusion of peace: Putin’s tactical ceasefire

Another “ceasefire”… for the sake of war.

The latest one-sided “ceasefire” proposed by Vladimir Putin, which he is trying to impose on us in an ultimatum-like manner, smells very bad. This time, he is talking about, essentially, three days of a “ceasefire”…

Let me remind you that during the “Easter ceasefire,” the Russians used the opportunity to create conditions for more effective subsequent assault operations. Specifically: they conducted demining of areas in the grey zone; evacuated damaged equipment from the grey zone for repairs and to clear the main assault routes; carried out rotations and reinforcements without risks; delivered ammunition and replenished their stockpiles; built up forces and resources in nearby areas; and conducted reconnaissance.

At the same time, assault operations continued — more than fifty during the “Easter ceasefire” — along with shelling of Ukrainian positions by both artillery and rocket systems — over 1,500 incidents — and the regular use of FPV drones, recorded over 900 times.

Does that sound like a “ceasefire”? I doubt it.

Now, Putin wants to extend a forced “ceasefire” for three days. In other words, all the actions we observed during the “Easter ceasefire” would be tripled. And this comes as all Russian military groups have received clear orders to begin a major summer offensive starting precisely in May.

In other words, Putin is seeking to create the most favorable conditions for the start of the 2025 offensive campaign, essentially within three days, making the grey zone unfit as a buffer between the positions of the Russian Occupation Forces (ROF) and the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).

During these days, they will safely transport and accumulate ammunition, equipment, and even motorcycles from deep in the rear, with around 5,000 accumulated in the rear for the first wave of assaults during the offensive, calculated to last a week. Now, they will be able to safely move everything to the front line and use it by May 11 for a large-scale breakthrough, if not across the entire LBS (Line of Battle), then at least along the main axes.

This stands in stark contrast to today’s statements by Sergey Lavrov regarding Russia’s demands on Ukraine, where only the issue of NATO might be discussed, while all other points are categorically off the table.

In other words, if Russia’s goal is conquest and occupation, as confirmed by Lavrov’s words — something we’ve never doubted — then what “ceasefire” is Putin talking about, and for what purpose? Is it to impress Donald Trump? Undoubtedly, it’s a trick. But still, Putin’s main goal is not a “ceasefire” for the sake of peace, but a “ceasefire” to continue the war.

Alexander Kovalenko