Russia – Ukraine autumn ceasefire puzzle

The situation around potential Russia – Ukraine peace talks— of course, through mediators and following the conference in Switzerland — consists of many pieces. But if you start to put everything together, you get a recognizable picture.

According to information leaks, the visit to Kyiv of the American guitarist and acting US Secretary of State E. Blinken was devoted to obtaining an unambiguous consent from the Ukrainian leadership for such negotiations. The argument, apparently, was the supply from the US of another batch of weapons and ammunition that we desperately need, as well as a semi-permission to use these weapons on the aggressor’s territory. Since the press is informed about this aid package, such consent has been obtained.

By the way, this looks very similar to an approach announced by D. Trump, that is, the Democrats deprive the Republicans of their developments, since copyright does not apply in politics.

Symmetrically, on the other side of the front, Putin is going to China to listen to Xi Jinping’s advice-orders. And before the visit, he reiterated that the under-empire is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, but, you see, the aggressor needs ‘security guarantees.’ This is what the Kremlin Führer calls the consent of Ukraine’s Western partners to a ceasefire without withdrawing occupation troops from Ukraine. Or at least an incomplete withdrawal, leaving at least a land corridor to the Crimea.

And then Russian troops’ frantic attacks, which are happening now, become quite logical – it’s a strengthening of the negotiating position, and no one has ever cared about the price.

The Ukrainian government’s procrastination with mass mobilization also becomes understandable – it will be much easier to conduct it if the fighting stops. And the recent personnel changes in the AFU leadership also fit into this negotiation puzzle.

Another element of the puzzle is the strange boldness of some of our European partners to send their troops to Ukraine. Let me remind you that, following France, Sweden expressed such a potential readiness. And the UK hints at something similar. Well, if the fire on the front stops, and a buffer zone is created, the deployment of NATO troops looks safe and therefore quite likely.

And finally, Ukrainian officials, including D. Kuleba, began to hint to that no one rejected negotiations on certain conditions. It’s clear that diplomats are always for negotiations, but this looks a lot like preparing public opinion.

So, will the peace talks definitely take place? No, so far we can only say that their probability has considerably increased. Anyway, the ceasefire will only be a pause in the war, which both we and the under-empire will use to build up military capabilities.

And if the ceasefire does happen in the fall, will it be a betrayal or a victory? Neither. It’ll be an objective reality that we will have to accept. And figure out what and how to do next. 

Oleksandr Kochetkov

Ukraine Front Lines

Tags: ceasefire Minsk agreements Normandy format Putin Russia russia ukraine war security guarantees Ukraine war