Orthodox Christmas ‘truce’ won’t save putin’s face

After a conversation with the president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who advised putin to confirm good will through actions and to unilaterally cease fire, putin… initiated a “truce”, but only on Christmas according to the Julian calendar.

As became know, vladimir putin instructed russia’s minister of defence Shoigu to introduce a “ceasefire regime” along the entire line of combat of the parties in Ukraine from 12:00 Moscow time on January 6 to 24:00 on January 7. The Kremlin also expects similar actions from Ukraine.

It was reported by the russian media at the afternoon of January 5.

Does “dove of peace” is waking up?

But nobody believes a liar – he broke his word too often. 

President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that: “Now they want to use Christmas as a cover to at least briefly stop the advance of our guys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunition and mobilized men closer to our positions. What will this bring? Just another increase in the death toll.” He also added, that “The war will be over when russian soldiers either leave or we drive them out.”

U.S. President Joe Biden said that “putin is trying to find some oxygen.”

We also assume, that russia just need 36h of “guarantees” that Ukrainian drones will not fly over Engels-2, Dyagilevo, Ostafyevo, Olenyia, Saky, Belbek and other russian military airfields. They need it to prepare well the next massive missiles strike on Ukraine. Just keep it in mind.

Following the mentioned above, it becomes clear, that:

• A drones attacks on the russian military objects are really successful;
• Ukrainian forces may and must continue to use preemptive strikes to not allow russian massive missiles attack on Ukraine happen.
• russia is losing.

Ukraine’s allies announce the delivery of new batches of weapons – Patriot complexes, tanks and armored vehicles, various ammunition – and also continue to use the strategy of strangulation russia with sanctions. The new supplies will help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to drive out the enemy; the sanctions are beginning to show a cumulative effect and to hit russia ever harder.

1. The stock gas prices in Europe fell below $700 per thousand cubic meters.

And the downward trend continues. The average price of 

2. The average price of Russia’s Urals crude oil in December last year decreased by 30.6% down to $50.47 per barrel, which is 1.44 times lower than that in December 2021 – $72.71 per barrel.

3. Moreover, Saudi Arabia cut February oil prices for Asia and Europe, which will further push the price down.

4. Estonia intends to be the first in Europe to transfer frozen russian assets to Ukraine.

Setting a precedent is extremely important because it will allow other countries to follow the beaten path.

5. A full-scale war accelerates the reduction of the population of the russian federation.

In 2022, the population of the russian federation reached a 10-year low of 143.2 million.

Back in April, an anti-record was registered – fewer than 100,000 children were born in the country – for the first time since World War II.

In addition, about a million people left the russian federation.

Due to military losses, the average life expectancy of men in russia will decrease by 0.6 year.

To be continued.

Ukraine Front Lines

Tags: Analytics peace plan peace talks Putin Russia russia ukraine war Ukraine war