Categories: ANALYTICS

On the negotiations in Jeddah: are things back on track with the U.S.?

Lately, I haven’t been writing much. This is a conscious decision: I strongly dislike what’s happening both in Ukraine and around us, but I consider it unprofessional to fuel public despair and disillusionment. However, the Ukraine-U.S. negotiations in Jeddah are too significant an event to ignore.

Moreover, the initial results look unexpectedly positive for Ukraine.

Let me explain. There are no concrete agreements yet. But Ukraine, as is already known, is ready for a comprehensive ceasefire—on land, at sea, and in the air—for a month. And the U.S. supports this, which is fundamentally important, and has already restored our access to intelligence data. What else Ukraine is willing to concede remains unstated by our leadership, but it’s clear that we are prepared, not legally but de facto, to acknowledge Russia’s control over the occupied territories and withdraw from the Kursk region (which, by the way, has been long overdue). Given the current circumstances, this is a completely acceptable compromise.

In essence, the “ceasefire grenade” has been successfully tossed into the enemy’s hands. Now, it’s up to the crumbling empire to decide whether it is ready for a temporary truce or if it will have to prove to Donald Trump that Putin does not, in fact, hold any sway over him.

A ceasefire is not in Russia’s interest, as it is currently advancing, albeit slowly. At the same time, displaying its relentless, brute aggression is also risky. Trump, like a diode, only operates in two states: open—meaning very friendly, or closed—meaning extremely enraged. If the U.S. president takes offense at “partner Volodya,” he may shift toward Ukraine, which could lead to financial and military aid flowing our way.

The key achievement of these negotiations is that Ukraine has managed to shed the label of “war advocates,” a label that now has a chance to stick to the party that truly deserves it—aggressive Russia.

Russia has yet to officially respond to the outcomes of Jeddah, and Lavrov’s vague verbal maneuvering is not worth paying attention to. We’ll see how the crumbling empire, at the level of Putin himself, tries to escape the zugzwang it has unexpectedly found itself in.

In my view, any concessions to Ukraine would signal that Russia is freeing up forces in preparation for an attack on the EU.

Alexandr Kochetkov

Ukraine Front Lines