ANALYTICS

Russian terrorists, after suffering losses drafting new war plan in Ukraine

Russian terrorists, after suffering losses in a number of areas, realized that attacking everywhere and at once is an absolutely idiotic thing, fraught with overstretch of forces and a very real prospect.

Therefore, having, as they think, soberly assessed the emerging situation, they decided to move from their original idea of “suffocating compression”, which involved encirclement and blocking of one of the two or both “main” cities of Ukraine (Kyiv and Kharkiv), to “dismemberment” of the country approximately along the Dnieper.

Consequently, the operational tasks of the enemy assault groups involved in the main operational areas have also changed.

Two days ago, the Russian group, which operated to the west and northwest of the capital and actually entered its western and northwestern outskirts and therefore posed the greatest danger, did their best to break through the Zhytomyr highway by the shortest route to Vasylkiv, Boyarka and Kryukivshchyna, i.e. actually cut off the Kyiv-Odesa highway and block Kyiv, but later it stopped and began regrouping.

This explains a halt of Russian terrorists in the vicinity of Ovruch and their fuss around Makarov. The expansion of the offensive to the west clearly fell out of the group’s priorities. Neither were they strong enough at that point to attack in divergent directions … after several sensitive slaps from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The same is true in the south.

After the evening before yesterday’s bloodbath near Bashtanka and an attempt to advance towards Voznesensk in order to bypass and blockade Mykolayiv, Russians obviously decided to turn north towards Kryvyi Rih. Yes, they would prefer to move towards Odesa, namely to Voznesensk, rather than in this direction but to do this without seizing Mykolayiv is definitely an idiotic decision … fraught with very sensitive losses. Therefore, Odesa has been postponed so far…

But Putin’s “quirk” today to continue the offensive, starting from 18:00 … in my opinion, will mean several quite obvious things …

1. Both western and southern groups of orcs will remain their priority. It is these groups that the Russian command replenishes and strengthens in the first place. It is in their interests that most of enemy aviation is trying to work.

2. No matter how stupid or insignificant these groups’ actions may seem, they have a very sensitive effect on the entire situation in all of Ukraine.

3. Judge for yourself… militarily, the existence of both of these groups (provided that the southern one breaks through to the Voznesensk sector) will practically CONSTANTLY put pressure on the operational possibility of their subsequent SIMULTANEOUS breakthrough to the Bila Tserkva-Uman sector … I.e., in fact, to cutting the country into two parts … with subsequent catastrophic consequences for its eastern part, including Kyiv and Kharkiv. Indeed … why surround, block and wage most difficult and bloody battles for the two largest urban agglomerations of the country, so to speak “in the near zone”, if it is possible to cut them off in one fell swoop in the west … moreover, BEYOND the Dnieper … in a place where there are no continuous square kilometers of urban development, where it is quite possible to use your numerical superiority?

4. It is no secret for Russians that much Ukrainians were evacuated to the Western and Central parts of the country from the East… in two main directions. Kyiv – Zhytomyr – Rivne – Lviv and Bila Tserkva – Uman – Vinnytsia – Khmelnytskyi… Evacuation is psychologically devastating for anyone who has been forced to move … These people just want to get home; only the hope that the factors that have forced them to evacuate “will be eliminated” get them back to normal … These people worry about the fate of relatives and friends, abandoned property, etc. And it is clear that in such a state, their will to fight and resist the aggressor is somewhat lowered … Orcs know all this very well and therefore try to block the main routes for the return of “evacuees” to their places of “permanent residence” or at least, threaten them … Both the southern and western groups of enemy troops are best suited for this purpose … even if they do nothing, but simply block the country’s main road routes leading either to the capital or to large cities in the East and in the Center of the country … For example, if the western group of enemy troops breaks through to the Odesa highway, it will block potential “returnees” from moving from the West and South to the capital, and the southern group may well cut off such routes for Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia …

5. The very existence of the potential danger of cutting the country into two parts has a very negative effect on themilitary industrial complex authorities’ ability to conduct organized and effective coordination of its defense, not to mention transport, communications, and social infrastructure. It is clear that there is a bunch of optimistic things that make a hypothetical breakthrough of the western and southern groups of enemy forces towards each other unlikely … Starting with the absolutely prehistoric ability of the command of the modern Russian army to supply and provide in every possible way for their “deepened” troops, and ending with a partisan movement in the rear of the invaders, which MUST start, if they decide to continue to “surround, encircle and break through” … for considerable distances into Ukraine …

However, for the reasons I have indicated above … the CURRENT situation with these two groups of enemy troops, even if they are limited to only some active actions of a tactical scale and do not break through anywhere (which is unlikely …), still has an extremely negative effect on the ability of Ukraine to resist the enemy effectively …

Therefore, the defeat of one of them becomes a very, very urgent issue. In my opinion, the western (Kyiv) group of enemy forces in this respect is the most suitable “object”…

And for some reason … it seems to me that, despite the fact that this group in some places went on the defensive and even began to dig in … its fate is sealed.

Kostyantyn Mashovets

Ukraine Front Lines