Forecast on the eve of the russian invasion Anniversary

It is necessary to proceed from the fact that the under-empire, due to its cannibalistic nature and the inflated cult of death, is practically insensitive to losses. Now they are losing 800 or more man units per day and nothing! Neither mass condemnation of the barbaric war unleashed against Ukraine, nor even attempts to change something in the tactics of hostilities.

On the other hand, the under-empire is extremely sensitive to defeats that cannot be hidden or talked about. Even the lack of progress, given the Russian hysterical megalomania, is perceived as a defeat, which is why the local propagandists sing about some kind of breakthrough offensive as much as a kilometer.

And also the leaders of the under-empire – finished fetishists, superstitious fatalists and rabid numerologists. Therefore, they constantly dance around dates, coincidences, symbols and signs.

Accordingly, on the date of the invasion, the Kremlin, led by a suitcase Fuhrer, needs something that can be sold to the electoral clientele for military success.

Based on this, in the twentieth of February, we must expect a missile-drone attack, moreover, a significant part of the strikes will be carried out on our air defense-missile defense positions. Because now the aggressor is trying to actively identify these positions. It is logical that after this there will be an attempt by the enemy to raise aircraft into the air and bombard both our fortifications on the fronts and peaceful cities. It is guaranteed that for many of Putin’s flyers this attempt will be the last (it is for this that the allies are urgently bringing us air defense systems).

At the same time, in the Donbass, as well as in the south, towards Zaporozhye and Nikolaev, forces will be massively thrown from mobilized with an abundance of old, but moving and firing armored vehicles. I am waiting for provocations from Belarus – either the designation of the state border crossing, at least, or the shelling of our territory. All this is to divert the Ukrainian defense forces.

The maximum that the aggressor can achieve, according to my estimates, is that ours will withdraw from Bakhmut and Vugledar, and there may also be tactical retreats 5-10 km deep in other directions. This is not a catastrophe, because we have prepared defensive positions there.

Then there will be fierce positional battles for a month or two, in which the task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to exhaust the enemy as much as possible, and after that our reserves trained and equipped in the West should come up. On NATO tanks and other armored vehicles with significant increased air support. It is assumed that this will provide real breakthroughs of the front for 30-50 km and the liberation of our territories both in the Donbass and in the south towards the Sea of Azov and Crimea.And this will become the basis for negotiations on the cessation of hostilities (note – not on the cessation of the war!). It is not at all a fact that these negotiations will end with some kind of result, but the fact that they will take place is, in my opinion, almost inevitable.

Aleksandr Kochetkov

Ukraine Front Lines

Tags: russia ukraine war