Categories: ANALYTICS

Effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes: March 2025 Moscow attacks

Tonight, on March 14, 2025, a landmark event took place—one that will undoubtedly play a significant role not only in the Russo-Ukrainian war but also in all military conflicts of the first quarter of the 21st century.

Tonight, Ukrainian strike drones attacked the center of Moscow for the first time since August 23, 2023—569 days ago, or nearly 19 months. The attack was successful: the enemy claims to have shot down four drones, while Russian social media and local media report at least eight explosions on the ground.

The drones reached the heart of the empire—Kyivskaya Street, Lestera Street, and Kutuzovsky Avenue. Drones were also detected on the outskirts of Moscow.

The Moscow region is oversaturated with air defense and electronic warfare systems, making it much easier to reach the strategic bomber base in Engels or the oil refinery in Tuapse.

Here, the issue is not the distance to the target but the drone’s capabilities—its technical solutions, the algorithms embedded in its software, and its artificial intelligence operating autonomously under intense countermeasures to reach the target area and execute an effective attack.

On March 11, 2025, what the enemy claims to be “the most massive Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow region” took place, involving at least 91 drones (based on the number reportedly “shot down”). In total, the enemy claims to have downed over 300 drones, with around 400 launched.

None of the Ukrainian drones launched on March 11, 2025, reached the borders of Moscow. Reports indicate several impacts on residential buildings and logistical facilities, but the overall effectiveness of the operation did not exceed 1%.

If we take the average cost of the drones launched that night—around $100,000 each (which is accurate)—the total expenditure for launching 400 drones amounted to $40 million in a single night. Of these, no more than 1% managed to hit a target (avoiding being shot down or jammed). In other words, by effectively throwing $40 million into the wind, Ukraine inflicted no more than $400,000 in damage to the enemy, not counting the additional costs of maintaining long-range drone operation teams.

In contrast, on March 14, 2025, only about 10 drones took part in the attack on Moscow, according to enemy reports. Of these, approximately 8 managed to penetrate the imperial capital’s defenses, and 4 exploded in close proximity to the Kremlin. The effectiveness rate was no less than 80%.

This raises a critical question—who managed to break through Moscow’s four-layered air defense system, oversaturated with detection and interception capabilities, if neither the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), nor the State Border Service (SBS) claimed responsibility for the operation?

And why is Ukraine throwing away tens and even hundreds of millions of dollars on ineffective aerial warfare when there are more efficient solutions and more successful operations?

Yuriy Kasianov

Ukraine Front Lines