Categories: ANALYTICS

About Iranian ballistic missiles

Since the fact of supplying ballistic Fath-360 missiles from Iran to the enemy can be considered a done deal, I would like to comment on this. Especially since a lot has already been written about them.

Firstly, “ballistic” does not refer to size or explosive power. It only means that the rocket’s engine operates only during the initial phase of the trajectory, and after that, it follows the laws of gravity and aerodynamics, like a bullet. In contrast to cruise missiles, where the engine works throughout the entire flight, similar to an airplane.

On Wikipedia, the Fath-360 is oddly compared to the American M142 HIMARS system. This is not the best comparison, as HIMARS is significantly more advanced. A better comparison for the Fath-360 would be the Russian “Tornado-S” multiple launch rocket system, as they share a common origin from the USSR. Therefore, their flight range is similar at 120 km, their warhead weight is 150 kg, and even the Iranian missiles are guided by the Soviet-Russian GLONASS system. By the way, it turns out that GLONASS does not work very well in Ukraine, so the aggressor is forced to switch to the American GPS.

So, we are talking about 200-300 missiles and an unknown number of launchers for long-range multiple launch rocket systems. Such a number of missiles could be fired within a week, or if used sparingly, over a month. For our frontline cities, primarily Kharkiv, this is bad news — the shelling will intensify somewhat. But we are not talking about the destruction of the Ukrainian energy system and a turning point in the war, as the media have already reported in Ukraine and abroad.

If Iran starts supplying Russia with “Zolfaghar” ballistic missiles, which carry a ton of explosives with a range of 700 km (of which Iran itself has few), then our critical infrastructure would face almost guaranteed serious problems.

The supply of a limited number of Fath-360 missiles seems like an attempt to pressure the US into negotiations with Iran. Iran is facing an old dilemma: money or escalation. If an agreement can be reached with the US to ease tensions and initiate something similar to the “Oil for Food” program, the Iranian leadership will continue to amass dollars without major upheavals. If no agreement is reached, Iran will start supplying weapons to the so-called empire, and in return, it is rumored to receive technology for creating a nuclear explosive device. However, this increases the risk of US air and missile strikes on Iran.

Iran is said to have already produced nuclear materials in weapon-grade concentrations, but lacks a practical design. This is important because the right design ensures both reliability and effectiveness of a nuclear weapon. For example, the “neutron reflector” technology can increase the explosion’s power by at least one and a half times with the same amount of nuclear material.

It remains to be seen how the Iranian dilemma will be resolved. It certainly won’t pass us by, so we will see and feel the effects. I doubt that Iran will symmetrically prohibit the US from striking Ukrainian territory with its missiles.

This raises a philosophical question: why is the “axis of evil” able to act much more decisively and effectively than our civilized, powerful, and developed partners?

Alexandr Kochetkov

Ukraine Front Lines