The National Bank forecasts that an additional 700,000 Ukrainians will go abroad by the end of 2025

The National Bank has revised its migration forecasts for Ukrainians. In April 2024, the National Bank expected an outflow of 200,000 people this year and an inflow of 400,000 next year.

However, it now estimates an outflow of 400,000 this year and another 300,000 next year.

This information is detailed in the new inflation report of the regulator for July 2024, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine.

“This assumption has worsened due to significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system, accompanied by prolonged power outages, which increase risks for the heating season,” the report stated.

The National Bank adds that in addition to household difficulties, frequent power outages negatively impact production processes, reducing economic activity and demand for labor, further stimulating migration.

In absolute numbers, this means an increase in the number of migrants staying abroad to 6.7 million this year and 7 million next year.

The NBU cites UN data, according to which the number of migrants abroad increased by 240,000 people in the first half of this year, reaching 6.6 million.

In the new report, the National Bank has postponed the expected start date for the return of Ukrainians to their homeland from 2025 to 2026. According to its forecasts, 200,000 Ukrainians may return home in the first quarter of 2026, and another 200,000 by the end of the year, although in the April inflation report, the net inflow for 2026 was estimated at 800,000 people.

The Central Bank explains the change in its forecasts as due to worsening living conditions in Ukraine, particularly due to power supply interruptions, as well as greater adaptation of Ukrainians abroad due to the long duration of their stay.

As reported, in July, the UN created a platform for Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons.

Yulia Daletska

Ukraine Front Lines

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