Russian crude oil export realities

Did everyone read that Russia has been significantly reducing its maritime oil exports lately? With references to well-known Western agencies and analytical centers? – This is not entirely true, unfortunately.

Andrii Klymenko investigates.

The facts from our monitoring results show the following:

Exports of Russian crude oil from Black Sea ports over the past 4 months of 2024 were as follows:

April 2024 – 4.06 million tons,

May 2024 – 3.49 million tons,

June 2024 – 4.13 million tons,

July 2024 – 3.54 million tons.

A 14.4% decrease in July compared to June is not unusual, such fluctuations happen.

Exports of Russian crude oil from Baltic Sea ports over the past 4 months of 2024 were as follows:

April 2024 – 11.8 million tons,

May 2024 – 11.31 million tons,

June 2024 – 10.68 million tons,

July 2024 – 10.34 million tons.

A 3.18% decrease in July compared to June indicates that the previous months’ downward trend is slowing, meaning the process is not radical but rather seasonal, with various repairs typically taking place.

What is the reason for such different assessments? – We finally found the answer and confirmation of our assumptions – something we have repeatedly pointed out. 

Western analysts use complex and, let’s say, very expensive software methods, and their programs are designed for peaceful times and “do not see” much of what our specialists observe. 

For example, very authoritative analytical sources, used not only by politicians but also – importantly – by stock brokers (since oil is a global commodity), published statistics a few days ago on the departure of tankers from several of Russia’s largest oil terminals in the Black and Baltic Seas. They allowed us to compare them with our data.

Here is what came of it:

According to their data, in the last 3 weeks of July this year, 9 tankers with crude oil left Novorossiysk, while according to our data, 13 tankers left. The difference of 4 crude oil tankers is between 500 to 600 thousand tons or 3.6 – 4.4 million barrels.

According to their data, over the same last 3 weeks of July, 33 crude oil tankers left two Russian ports in the Baltic, whereas according to our physical monitoring data… – 52 tankers. 

A good difference of 19 tankers (19 tankers is up to 2.8 million tons or 20.4 million barrels of Urals crude oil).

We will not go into detail – because our publications are carefully analyzed not only by friends. And not only do they draw conclusions, but they also take some technical measures.

The reason is something we have also written about a lot – electronic warfare means and some tanker crew games that distort real information.

What should those for whom this is important for analyzing the real situation do? – Read the materials of the Monitoring Group of the “Institute of Black Sea Strategic Studies” and BlackSeaNews. Databases on crude oil and petroleum product exports from Russian ports.

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