Russia has concentrated a large number of aircraft at the Olenya airbase: what could this mean?
Since 2022, Olenya airbase has been actively used for attacks on Ukraine. Bombers take off from the base, fly to the Caspian Sea, and launch missiles at their targets from there.
Russia has concentrated 45 military aircraft at Olenya airbase, located on the Kola Peninsula near NATO borders. This is the largest deployment at this base since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. There is a possibility that Russia is preparing for massive strikes on Ukraine. However, it cannot be ruled out that the activity is related to routine aircraft maintenance.
This concentration of Russian military aircraft is confirmed by satellite images taken on March 12. The images were shared on a channel dedicated to military and civilian aviation enthusiasts.
According to the published images, the following aircraft are present at the airbase:
Commenting on this activity, Western analysts noted that the base is located 90 km south of Murmansk and has historically been used for Russia’s strategic aviation. With a 3,500-meter runway, it is suitable for heavy aircraft, including the Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers, which carry Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles with a range of over 2,500 km.
Since 2022, Olenya airbase has been actively used for attacks on Ukraine. Bombers take off from the base, fly to the Caspian Sea, and launch missiles at their targets from there. Due to its distance from Ukraine—approximately 1,800 km from the border—the base is partially protected from strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Possible reasons for the deployment
Experts have differing opinions on the reasons behind this Russian activity. Former director of the UK-based RUSI institute, Michael Clarke, believes that Russia is consolidating its forces ahead of a spring offensive, and the increased presence of Tu-22M3 bombers could indicate preparations for massive strikes on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Professor Katarzyna Zysk from the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies suggested that the concentration of such a large number of aircraft may be due to the need for maintenance or redeployment. She emphasized that the base’s location—just 150 kilometers from Finland, a NATO member since 2023, and 200 kilometers from Norway—complicates any aggressive intentions, as Russia would fear provoking a response from the Alliance.
Any activity at the airbase is immediately tracked by NATO intelligence, reducing the element of surprise and potentially deterring Russia from using the base for anything beyond its current role in the war against Ukraine.
Observers also noted that the Pentagon has not yet commented on the situation but continues to monitor Russian military activity. At the same time, it is possible that Russia is demonstrating its strength and testing the West’s reaction while preparing for a potential escalation, though Moscow’s exact intentions remain unclear.
Notably, Russia recently conducted the first takeoff of a rare A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in six months, as reported by monitoring channels. This aircraft is capable of detecting targets up to 400 kilometers away.
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