The network is actively discussing messages from Russian media about the supposed genuine plan of measures proposed by the Kremlin, which was recently brought to New York by the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, Kolokoltsev.
They even cite the main provisions of these “8 points of Kolokoltsev,” which were allegedly leaked to the media:
– Ukraine must completely withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and in return, Russia will transfer to it the Zaporizhzhia plant and Enerhodar. Additionally, Ukraine will gain control over a demilitarized 100-kilometer zone along the Dnipro River to the Black Sea.
– Ukraine must take on legally binding international guarantees not to block the supply of water to Crimea.
– Ukraine must enshrine in its Constitution a non-aligned status and not join NATO, as well as any other newly created alliance.
– Ukraine must enshrine in its Constitution the concept of a “peacetime army” with a size of 350,000 personnel and have a legally defined limited list of armaments. In particular, Ukraine cannot have more than 125 combat-type aircraft.
– The treaty on intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles, which Ukraine must sign, should be revived.
– Crimea is defined as a special demilitarized administrative territory under the dual jurisdiction of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. In return, the US and its allies lift sanctions related to the supply of high-tech and high-tech goods to Russia, as well as sanctions imposed on the oil and gas sector and the banking system.
– Meanwhile, Russia is ready to consider transferring full control of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to the opponent.
– The Russian Federation has no objections to Ukraine joining the EU.
– A ceasefire regime along the line of contact should be introduced immediately after the start of truce negotiations in a format involving Russia, the US, China, the EU, and Ukraine.
I have no doubt that these “8 points” were crafted in the Kremlin. The style is very familiar: all the main points are about direct obligations for Ukraine, and practically nothing is said about the obligations of the Russian Federation. It immediately reminds me of the “Minsk peace agreements” – the style is similar.
The open question is about the goals for which these “8 points” were now introduced into the global and Ukrainian information space. Because Putin himself continues to declare his readiness to start peace negotiations only on the basis of the “Istanbul agreements,” which are significantly harsher for Ukraine than these “8 points.”
If we analyze these “8 points” for realism, the only thing that seems feasible for Putin is the introduction of a ceasefire regime from the start of negotiations and for some time. Everything else, including the supposed readiness of Putin to consider the possibility of “transferring” the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to the opponent in exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region, the creation of a special administrative territory of Crimea with dual subordination instead of a federal district of the Russian Federation, all this seems more like a “decoy” – a list of issues proposed only for the sake of imitating their discussion and providing opportunities to stall for as long as necessary.
This “leak of secret peace proposals” from Putin is just one step in a plan already developed and accepted for implementation by the Kremlin. We need to look at and consider this plan, not the “decoy” thrown at us to test our reaction and distract attention to secondary issues. So far, Putin’s plan, being implemented before our eyes, matches the one described in the “Bild” publication from December 2023, according to which in 2024, Putin will simulate negotiations and readiness to end the war and will try to capture the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the territory up to the Oskil River in Kharkiv region.
We should proceed from the fact that Putin’s real plan looks exactly as described in the “Bild” publication, and it seems that we are now entering the stage of Kremlin’s simulation of readiness to end the war.
Tags: ceasefire investigation peace talks Russia russia ukraine war Ukraine
