Sharp increase in russian crude oil exports analysis

A more detailed analysis of the sharp increase in Russian crude oil exports by sea in March 2023.

1. Russia's crude oil exports from the Black Sea ports in March 2023 set a record of 5,565,874 tons. This is significantly higher than any of the previous months since April 2022*, when the average for the previous months was 3,457,348 tons.

2. This record increase was driven by exports to non-EU, G7 and other Asian and African countries** that have supported the oil embargo in place since December 5, 2022.

** In March 2023, Asian and African countries imported 91.4% of the total volume of Russian oil from the Black Sea ports - 5,089,425 tons. At the raid transshipment near Greece - 476,449 tons.

3. In March 2023, marine exports of crude oil from the Black Sea to the raid transshipment off the coast of Greece amounted to only 8.6% of the total.

In March 2023, for the first time, no tankers with Russian crude oil from the Black Sea called directly at EU ports.

4. Exports of Russian crude oil by sea from the Black Sea to countries other than the EU+ in March 2023 increased by 3,216,048 tons or 2.7 times (from 1,873,377 to 5,089,425 tons) compared to the previous month.

The main importers and drivers of this growth in March 2023 were:

-- India [IN] - volume of 1,242,956 tons, an increase of 443,197 tons, 1.6 times

-- Singapore [SG] - volume of 1,064,478 tons, an increase of 949,033 tons, 9.2 times

-- China [CN] - volume of 877,217 tons, an increase of 718,033 tons, 5.5 times

-- Turkey [TR] - volume 468,386 tons, growth - 197,903 tons, 1.7 times

5. In March 2023, 45 tankers transported Russian crude oil. Based on the country of registration of the shipowning companies, they are distributed as follows:

-- Cyprus [CY] - 1 tanker

-- Greece [GR] - 16 tankers

-- India [IN] - 7 tankers

-- Russia [RU] - 7 tankers (re-registered in Dubai, UAE)

-- Turkey [TR] - 6 tankers

-- Liberia [LR] - 5 tankers

-- British Virgin Islands [VG] - 1 tanker

-- Marshall Islands [MH] - 1 tanker

-- China [CN] - 1 tanker

Conclusions and assumptions

Russia is not going to reduce either oil production or exports. Russian statements about the alleged reduction in oil production are most likely an information manipulation. The purpose of this manipulation is to promote the growth of world oil prices.

This Russian policy is most likely coordinated with OPEC+.

There is no shortage of tanker fleet to ensure these shipments. Control over compliance by EU carriers with the terms of contracts ("price ceiling") is likely ineffective.

The involvement of tankers from the EU in transportation to other countries is not critical - 8 tankers, 17.8% of the total.

Andriy Klymenko

Ukraine Front Lines

Tags: russia ukraine war