The current stage of violent military confrontation in Ukraine resembles the situation faced by the Soviet Union in early-mid 1942, when the country and army survived the first shock of the German Blitzkrieg, Wehrmacht troops were driven back from Moscow, the German offensive actually stopped, and the Soviet “broad-front offensive” (Rzhev-Vyazma operation) turned out to be a bloody adventure. Lend-Lease just started working. Both sides worked on mistakes, built up strength, and made plans. The decisive Battle of Stalingrad was yet ahead.
We can draw many analogies with different wars at different times: history teaches us to competently analyze the current situation and find ways out of the crisis. The war in Ukraine is not the first, and, unfortunately, not the last on planet Earth, and the fact that it has unique features — the massive use of drones — does not negate the general features of this war, inherent in all wars. All wars are alike because…
First, ”War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means” /Clausewitz/.
Russia’s goal is the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood. Ukraine’s goal is to protect its statehood. Understanding the goals of the warring parties allows one to realistically evaluate any ideas, plans, and prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Long-term peace is impossible. A truce is possible, but only for a short time. Only two outcomes are likely: either Ukraine will submit and again become part of the Russian Empire being revived by Putin or the empire will break down, lose strength, and retreat.
Second: war is not only military actions.
This is a confrontation between economies, a competition of management models, a confrontation between the morale of troops and their readiness to fight. Today Ukraine has only one, its own, national advantage in this war — Ukrainians are more ready to fight than Russians. Having tasted the fruits of freedom, having lived in their own national, sovereign state — despite all its corruption and inefficiency — Ukrainians are nevertheless ready and willing to defend it, to defend their country, their nation. Russian imperial propaganda also trains good ideological fighters, but fighting in a foreign country for the great ideals of the empire is not the same thing as fighting on one’s own land, defending one’s national home.
As for the competition of management models and the confrontation between economies, things are much worse in Ukraine. If it were not for Western military and economic assistance, as well as political support, the war most likely would have been lost a year ago. And it may still be lost in six months or a year, because when the level of Western assistance to Ukraine decreases, the weakness of Kyiv’s public administration system burdened with catastrophic corruption, nepotism, incompetence of leaders and the utter stupidity of subordinates becomes critically dangerous.
As Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi admitted in an interview to The Economist, the situation on the front lines “reached a deadlock.” The Ukrainian offensive fizzled out; hopes for quick success crashed against well-fortified Russian positions and minefields. Meanwhile, the imperial army is not yet able to seize the initiative, experiencing an acute shortage of motivated fighters, weapons and military equipment.
There is a fragile balance liable to tip in different directions, depending on the ability of the opponents to accumulate more resources and to use them more skillfully.
Russia’s chances of turning the tide of the war are high — as you know, The Russians harness their horses slowly but they drive them fast. The authoritarian, imperial model of government today is outplaying the ochlocracy that has occupied the Kyiv government offices. In Russia, mass production of drones is being mastered by order; tank and ammunition factories operate in three shifts.
Ukraine lost time counting on Western help. Instead of developing their own defense production, para-governmental business structures earned easy money from building roads, paving streets, and improving city parks.
Now that Western military and financial assistance has sharply decreased, a reasonable question arises — what to do next?..
It is no coincidence that representatives of the United States, European countries, and NATO have visited Kyiv last week. There can be only two ways out of the current critical situation: peace negotiations, partial surrender, and postponing another war for several years; or the complete mobilization of the state, society, industry, and business, which can at least partially compensate for the sharp decrease in the volume of Western assistance.
Zelensky was probably offered both options. Which one will he choose? Probably the second one. He will decide to continue fighting because the first option means inevitable political death. But in order to fight, we will have to modernize the entire system of governance, carry out a revolution from above and from within, bring talented managers and commanders to the forefront, transfer the economy to a war footing, unite and mobilize society.
It is a huge challenge. And Ukrainian Stalingrad is still ahead. However, it is impossible to emerge victorious without deep modernization of the country.
Ukrainian Armed Forces officer, radio engineer, aerial reconnaissance specialist Yuri Kasyanov for Vesti.az.
Tags: russia ukraine war
