Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the russian Federation has announced that russia withdraw from the “grain agreements” and will be back as soon as all “agreements” in the regards of [russia’s] interests will be fulfilled.
“russia restores “the regime of a temporarily dangerous area” in the northwestern Black Sea,” – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation announced today.
The President of Turkey reaction on that news is the following: “The grain agreement has gone down in history” – Erdogan says. At the same time, Ankara emphasizes that they intend to discuss this issue during Putin’s visit to Turkey.
Scenario 1: Erdogan will force putin to sign the extension of the grain agreement.
Outcomes: Grain to African countries, money to Ukraines, reputation to Turkey, and Russia will receive nothing.
Scenario 2: Erdogan will not be able to force putin to sign the grain agreement.
Outcomes.
Firstly, it will lead to deterioration of relations between the russian Federation and Turkey, and it will greatly help the russian Federation in circumventing sanctions.
Secondly, Turkey has undertaken to protect ships with grain with its naval forces, if the Russian Federation refuses to extend the grain agreement. This can lead to a conflict between the Black Sea Fleet and the Turkish Navy.
Besides, we must remember that the USA has promised “catastrophic consequences” for the russian Federation in case it refuses to continue the grain agreement, thereby creating famine in many regions of the world.
Official Kyiv’s response is simple and prominent: “We are not afraid”, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy replied. He also said that Ukraine is in favor of continuing shipping grain after russia’s withdraws from the agreement. There were no agreements between Ukraine & Russia, he added. By withdrawing from the grain agreement, Russia violates its agreements with Turkey & the UN.
