Back in the Soviet Union, fussy public activity tied to dates was annoying. Especially when it was not about events that had a public calendar. Now the resulting itch is frankly irritating. Because the main events of this war for the existence of Ukraine are yet to come. They will unfold in the coming months, which will determine the actual outcome of the military confrontation in the medium term. We will analyze it then.
But one thing is absolutely certain: Ukraine has proved that it is not Russia. And it will never be Russia. The super-convincing confirmation of this is the hundreds of thousands of losses of the Russian invaders. And how the Kremlin hoped for “brotherly bread and salt”…
By the way, do you know what the fundamental difference between Ukraine and Russia is? Not in the nightingale language, not in the existence of an initial pluralism of opinion and the resulting freedom of speech. No, the insurmountable difference is the changeability of power from below. In Russia, power can only be replaced from above. I’m not talking about the quality of this change, I’m talking about the principle.
It was because of the change of power from below that the Kremlin perceived the Maidan of 2004 as a deadly threat to itself. And the Kremlin tried to counter Maidan 2014 by any means necessary, which resulted in the annexation of Crimea, the proxy war in Donbass, and, ultimately, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That is why this war is existential, and standard approaches to ending it do not work.
Nevertheless, by the anniversary of the invasion, approaches to ending the war from all parties concerned were made public. China was the last to publicly decide, and it did so in a way that irritated everyone else.
But in order. The peace plan of Ukraine is well known. This is the defeat of the aggressor on the soil of Ukraine, the complete deoccupation of all occupied territories, the return of prisoners and forcibly displaced persons, reparations and contributions, guarantees of security of Ukraine. I like this plan, but I cannot help seeing that it is maximalist, that is, difficult to implement. Accordingly, it generates inflated public expectations. But this is the problem of those who make such a plan.
Our allies, the U.S. and Europe, have publicly solidified Ukraine’s peace plan. But there is a non-public reservation: we give you everything we can to realize your intentions, but if you fail, then the U.S. and Europe will propose their own, more realistic, plan for a peaceful settlement. But for now, we have carte blanche: we’ll launch an effective counter-offensive, we’ll beat the aggressor, and they’ll support us.
The Kremlin’s position, launched both officially and unofficially in the U.S., is also known. The neo-imperium has really shat all over itself with the war. Propaganda raising the stakes, which was formulated in the utmost form by the notorious maniac Dugin, “There will either be a victory for Russia, or there will be no humanity,” is no longer working. The world is outgunned. Therefore, the Kremlin would like to fix the line of confrontation for today, agree on a cease-fire, introduce peacekeepers from the OCST, and symbolically decide on some humanitarian issues. A kind of “Minsk 3.”
These are sick fantasies that no one in the world takes seriously. Because it is obvious that the under-imperium will use the respite exclusively to recruit new mortified, rearm and continue the aggression, taking advantage of its resource superiority.
The final point was a kind of “China Plan”. Although it is not a plan, but China’s vision of the situation from the standpoint of Chinese interests. There are legends and anecdotes about pragmatic nations, in this sense they talk about Jews, Armenians. But they are all rosy romantics next to China, whose pragmatism is rooted in thousands of years of history.
Accordingly, China’s vision includes slogans about respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity, ending hostilities, peace negotiations, nuclear security, and other cute cartoon pandas. But China does not intend to invest a single yuan in the realization of this idyllic picture.
China needs the United States and Europe as a solvent market. China needs Russia as a source of cheap resources – energy, water, timber and everything else. Plus, it needs Russia as a force that holds back the United States. But China practically does not need Ukraine. Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation is a story about how China is trying to buy something from us on the cheap – whether it’s grain or “Motorcic”, and Ukraine was rudely throwing it away.
And until this situation changes, we should not count on any not even support, but simply an objective position from China.
As a result, the Western world, with the non-resistance of China, has tacitly given Ukraine until the end of the year to deal with the aggressor militarily. If this does not happen, they will use their leverage to force peace negotiations. And in this case nothing good can come of this. Especially if you remember society’s inflated expectations.
So let’s make a fist of it, let’s support the front in every way we can. We must not wait for undeserved gifts from nowhere. Because Ukraine’s fate has always been and always will be in hands of Ukrainians. Because Ukraine is not Russia.
Tags: peace plan russia ukraine war ukraine front lines
The only realistic option for Ukraine is to defeat Putin on the battle ground, after his army has killed the innocent people in those cities and devastated their homes.