Let’s talk about a “potential” of the russian offensive and “does another massive missile attack can be described” with war monitor.
“Will there be an offensive in general? What directions?”
I think the russians can advance in the South and East (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk regions), no more. As for an attack on Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv –nonsense, there’s no shock power to attack there. Just remember December-January-February 2022, when the entire Western press published satellite images of military equipment, locals posted videos of large columns, and Western officials directly talked about the invasion. Now there are no pictures, no visual recording of the equipment, at least I haven’t seen them, only warnings from our officials (regarding an offensive in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia) and some Western officials/sources. Of course, we shouldn’t ignore these reports, but shouldn’t exaggerate either, panic is not a protection against dangerous events, it’s your enemy.
Without further ado, I believe that an offensive can take place maximum on Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, provided that our troops are not at the level of February 24, but they are ready, that’s all.
“Will there be massive missile shelling?”
I believe it will be between February 6 and 9, some factors indicate this (A-50U AEW&C, UAV reconnaissance, aerial reconnaissance, delivery of missiles to airfields, etc.). I spoke about it in my previous post. This is not a sign of preparing for an offensive based on the principle of “clear with missiles and then attack”, if you haven’t noticed, we were also shelled in the fall and early winter, and more massively, but we are here, we are holding on and moving on. I think most people know my position on this: when you panic and think about shelling, it gives absolutely nothing, in fact, it is unnecessary thoughts, it happens at an unexpected moment when you don’t think about it at all.
I understand that most people live from shelling to shelling, but living and waiting is one thing, and living and waiting in fear and panic is another, it’s not worth it, believe me.
To those for whom reading is “difficult”, I’ll say briefly: I think that an offensive will be maximum in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, missile fire is possible from February 6 to 9, 2023 maybe on other days, but it’s only my opinion and I am not responsible for whether something will happen or not.
As of the end of this week, the largest group of Tu-95ms strategic bombers is concentrated in the Far East, the airfield “Ukrainka” (~30 units), the smallest is at the airfield “Engels-2” (~4 units), aviation groups of small and medium numbers are concentrated at the airfield “Diaghilev” (6 units) and “Olenya” (13 units).
At the “Olenya” airfield, provided that 4 X-101/X-555 missiles are loaded on board, they are ready for use with 7 Tu-95ms strategic bombers (calculations, of course, are approximate). Other bases of these bombers are not used.
Several Tu-22m3 aviation groups participating in massive missile attacks are located at the Shaykovka airfield in the Kaluga region (17 units), usually from 3 to 5 such bombers are used, the load is one X-22 supersonic cruise missile per board.
I note that I am not “hinting” at shelling, this is just a small analysis.”
War Monitor.
