Why is Russia not under Trump’s sanctions?

1. The positive side. It seems to be part of Trump’s negotiation strategy — either you agree to some form of peace deal, or the promised 500% tariffs (proposed by Lindsey Graham) will be imposed on all goods from countries that purchase Russian oil. Formally, a similar logic was applied to Canada and Mexico.

2. The negative side. The U.S. and Russia are on the verge of possibly signing an agreement on rare earth metals, which would not only involve American capital entering Russia’s energy sector but also the creation of trading houses to sell Russian sanctioned goods, primarily in the EU (Dmitriev’s visit to Washington was precisely about this). This is a complex process as it requires EU approval. However, by imposing tariffs on EU goods, Trump now has room for maneuver.

3. I still believe that Putin will do everything possible to prolong the war, but his room for maneuver has now narrowed. The key bargaining factor for him remains the natural resources deal. His bet on being needed as a mediator in U.S.-China negotiations is rapidly losing value. In the current situation, he has only “either-or” options, and he is highly likely to side with China as the lesser evil for himself personally. (In short: he wants to continue the war, and he fears the 30% of ultra-patriots in the post-war period.)

4. The EU’s strategic approach of involving Ukraine in the U.S.-EU negotiation process remains fundamental for us, but our own maneuvering space has also shrunk. The problem is that the EU assumed Trump wouldn’t impose tariffs on Europe while the war in Ukraine was ongoing. Now, the focus will shift to negotiating tariff exemptions, and while Ukraine remains a strong card, it is no longer a trump card (Hungary and Slovakia will actively fuel this discussion). However, despite this, it remains our main play for now. Let me emphasize again: the EU is bound to negotiate tariffs, security, and support for Ukraine. They will have no choice but to engage in these talks in the coming months.

5. We must also consider that the likelihood of a war in Iran is quite high. This scenario exists, and it is, in many ways, necessary for Trump. A swift and victorious bombing campaign would effectively shut down any attempts to push counter-sanctions or form anti-American coalitions. For now, war in Iran remains a theoretical option, but if it materializes, global attention will shift away from Ukraine.

At this point, talking about a deterioration — or especially a significant deterioration — of our position would be misleading. The game has simply become more complicated.

Vadym Denysenko

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