The nuclear threat to Ukraine may increase sharply

Ukrainians should pay close attention to developments in Iran, particularly regarding the possible destruction of the nuclear facility in Fordow. This is directly relevant to us.

This underground facility is used for final enrichment of uranium-235 to weapons-grade levels. It may also be the site where an actual nuclear device is being developed, which could potentially be used in military operations.

Accordingly, Israel and the United States would need to destroy this facility as reliably as possible. However, it is located several hundred meters deep within solid rock. According to available information, B. Netanyahu is trying to convince D. Trump that the American super-bomb GBU-57—weighing 13.5 tons and capable of being carried only by U.S. bombers—would be sufficient to destroy Fordow. Yet, some experts in the U.S. believe that even this bomb may not be enough, and that reliable destruction would require the use of nuclear bunker-busting weapons.

In this context, it becomes clearer why Trump recently lamented that he is facing challenges similar to those of President H. Truman—the very president who made the decision to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It also explains why the “Doomsday Plane,” designed to serve as a mobile command center for the U.S. president during a nuclear war, has been relocated to Andrews Air Force Base. And why prominent Republicans have begun to strongly oppose U.S. strikes on Iran. Finally, it sheds light on why the American press is reporting that the White House is considering the option of using tactical nuclear weapons.

A decision on attacking Fordow has not yet been made. The leaks about potential nuclear weapons use might turn out to be nothing more than deliberate disinformation. Although, with an unpredictable Trump, anything is possible.
The global non-use of nuclear weapons rests solely on the understanding that any country and its leader who crosses that line will either be jointly destroyed or turned into a complete pariah. But if the U.S. uses nuclear weapons, it would effectively give permission for others to do the same.

The likelihood of nuclear use would immediately increase dramatically in conflicts such as India vs. Pakistan or North vs. South Korea. And Ukraine would be left to rely solely on the technical shortcomings of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and the skill of our air defense and missile defense forces. Putin has long been prepared to strike us with a tactical nuke but hesitates due to fear of global reaction—especially from the United States.

We are closely monitoring the situation. I sincerely hope the United States has sufficient political safeguards (like the Senate and Congress) to prevent a scenario that would be suicidal for humanity.

P.S. Of course, I realize there’s nothing cheerful in what I’m reporting. But I promised to honestly inform my readers about developments in the field of nuclear security.

However, there is another point of view.

Mr. Kochetkov is fearmongering again… Trump will never use nuclear weapons against Iran. And even the involvement of the U.S. Air Force in a “special Jewish operation” is highly questionable. It’s far more likely that the U.S. will limit its role to supplying weapons to Israel. The reason is geopolitical: China will not allow the destruction of Iran, as Iran is a key country on the New Silk Road. If such a scenario plays out, it could lead to a dangerous trade-off—Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the guaranteed destruction of Israel. How? With Chinese missiles that the PRC might deliver to Iran as a victim of aggression. Don’t forget: under international law, Iran would be in the right.

But even without the “China factor,” the U.S. has no real interest in disarming Iran. It would only create a new (and unfavorable) balance of power. Weakening Iran means strengthening Turkey and Saudi Arabia—at the very least. And these countries are far from pro-American. A weakened Israel wouldn’t be able to counterbalance them, leading to a loss of U.S. influence in the Middle East.

As for Putin using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine—it makes no real sense on the battlefield due to the low troop density. At most, he’d destroy a single company of soldiers with one bomb… And a strike on the center of Kyiv makes no strategic sense either. That’s not a reason for Ukraine to surrender.
Even if the author of this post ends up buried under the rubble.

Alexandr Kochetkov