Categories: ANALYTICS

The London summit without embellishment

Europe has admitted that not only does it lack strong capabilities to protect Ukraine, but it is also struggling with its own security. Without U.S. assistance, things will be tough.

Several leaders urged Volodymyr Zelensky to return to negotiations with the U.S. after his fallout with American leader Donald Trump.

Speaking of conflicts with Trump—at the conservative gathering a week ago, Trump spent a whole 42 minutes with Meloni but only 10 with Poland’s Duda. This sparked outrage at home, with all parties calling the president a fool, accusing him of failing to protect Poland’s interests. The argument was that if Warsaw’s vision wasn’t properly represented, he shouldn’t have gone at all. In response, the Polish president rushed to an emergency interview, assuring the public that he had conveyed all the important messages to the White House. And he is not a fool.

Poles, according to polls, are deeply worried about a U.S. military withdrawal from Europe, including from their own country. That’s why Duda is eager to please the White House—and he strongly advises Zelensky to engage in “calm and constructive negotiations.”

Italy and the UK have offered to mediate Ukraine’s talks with the White House. This essentially downgrades Ukraine from a full-fledged player to a party needing a mediator. Meloni’s motives are clear—Trump likes her, and this is her chance to elevate Italy’s standing. But why does Starmer want this? Musk and his allies have smeared him worse than just calling him a dictator, accusing him of covering up for pedophile rapists and being “China’s b*tch.” Now, Mr. Keir wants to sell himself at a higher price, using Kyiv as leverage.

Macron and Starmer have presented their alternative to Trump’s proposed truce: a one-month partial cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine—on land, at sea, and in the air. For now, it’s just a declaration.

The media eagerly reported Britain’s pledge of 5,000 air defense missiles. But pay attention—these are for shooting down drones, not ballistic missiles! And they’ll be delivered by 2030. By then, Ukraine will have to survive and avoid losing even more regions.

The rift within Europe is obvious—Baltic states weren’t even invited to the London meeting. Interestingly, even in Lithuania, public opinion is split on whether to increase defense spending to 5–6%. About half say yes, half say no. A classic case of infantilism, even though it’s clear that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, the Baltics will be next.

Ursula von der Leyen made some significant points about Europe’s need for rearmament. As for Ukraine, she said it must become a “steel porcupine” that the enemy cannot swallow. So, for now, the survival of this adolescent hedgehog is in its own hands.

The London summit failed to address a crucial question: how exactly Ukraine should meet its air defense and intelligence needs without U.S. support. Right now, there is no solution without the U.S., and that needs to be acknowledged.

Many are sharing Zelensky’s quote from his interview with British media. On the bright side, he finally listened to the translator. But his statement—“It’s not just about holding elections, but also about making sure I’m not allowed to participate”—reeks of infantilism and a sense that he has played everyone. The uncertainty surrounding the war’s outcome is terrifying.

At the start of the full-scale invasion, I noted that Zelensky’s behavior closely resembles that of Franjo Tuđman. Under Bill Clinton’s pressure, Tuđman signed difficult agreements, but internally, he still tried to manipulate everyone and control Croatia’s post-war future. Ultimately, Croatia got everything it wanted—but without Tuđman. His successors had to rebuild the country’s image from scratch.

UPD: I don’t engage in political cheerleading for anyone—I assess prospects. And right now, they look extremely grim. Situational rating games only last until the next deadly missile strike, like the one on Ohmatdyt hospital. On March 1, while everyone was celebrating the Washington chaos, missiles hit a training ground in Dnipropetrovsk, killing soldiers.

UPD 2: Subscribers have found out that Zelensky has already managed to insult Senator Lindsey Graham, telling him to shut up if he doesn’t have a Ukrainian passport. A big mistake—this veteran Republican has arranged numerous high-level meetings. And despite his eccentricity, he was one of the very few politicians who accurately assessed Putin’s threat back in his famous 2007 Munich speech.

Marina Daniluk-Yarmolaeva