Categories: ANALYTICS

The future of European security: Ukraine’s path beyond NATO and U.S. guarantees

The future of European security: Ukraine's path beyond NATO and U.S. guarantees

So, we’ve finally reached clarity — the U.S. has laid its cards on the table…

“The key principle here is that the Europeans must take on this conflict. President Trump is going to bring it to an end, and then, in terms of security guarantees, it will definitely be up to the Europeans.” — Michael Waltz.

This is a completely consistent U.S. position that all American presidents have implemented toward Ukraine since 1991. The U.S. is not willing to spoil relations with Russia over some unclear Ukraine or even some Poland! The truth is, the “Democrats” masked this position, pretending to be Ukraine’s allies to advance the economic interests of their “donors.” But the current administration in Washington doesn’t even see the point in bothering with lies — they are preparing to play a completely different game instead of the game of a “unipolar world.”

Now, Ukraine needs to determine whether Germany and France are ready to fight against an aggressor who seeks to destroy Europe once again by restoring the USSR and establishing control over at least half of Europe. And this must be determined not by the words uttered by Scholz and Macron, even in private conversations, but solely by their actions! If testing Germany and France’s position reveals that they, too, do not want to fight Russia to defend the freedom of European nations, then Ukraine is left with the only real scenario—one that offers the greatest long-term strategic advantages. This scenario involves reassembling the center of a new European project, beginning with the formation of a military alliance with Finland, the Scandinavian countries, the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Bulgaria — an alliance that would then be expanded into a political and economic union of Central Europe.

This scenario is entirely feasible with existing resources and in the shortest possible timeframe. Europe has already realized that NATO’s Article 5 does not protect them. Not theoretically, not in some vague future, but practically and concretely—it does not protect them from today’s Kremlin madman, who is already advancing. Europe now has to save itself with its own hands. And without Ukraine, Europe cannot be saved — this is already obvious to most “Euro-optimists.”

Now we will see whether the Ukrainian nation is truly capable of uniting and solving this managerial challenge. There are, of course, several possible solutions to this challenge, not just one! But all of them will require quick and precise actions, constant analysis of the consequences, and adjustments to every next step. It will be necessary to radically change the domestic agenda, replace a significant part of the state apparatus, and redistribute existing resources to achieve this external goal — creating a military defense alliance with those European countries that also recognize the existential threat to their own existence in the new global order. Yes, Ukraine will have to calculate every move and act in the international arena much faster than the enemy! But we are already the most experienced nation in Europe and know that there is no other way to win, in principle. We have already done it twice: in 2022, when we were given 72 hours to surrender, and in 2023–2024, after the “counteroffensive” ended, when we were left alone with the aggressor for six months without any U.S. military aid — hoping that we would break and agree to capitulate…

The alternative to creating such a military alliance is, in the worst case, the complete occupation of Ukraine by Russia (with all the consequences well known to us from history). A less catastrophic outcome would be the “Georgian scenario,” where a Kremlin-backed puppet wins fake elections in Ukraine and dismantles the country’s sovereignty.

P.S. If we believe Trump’s words, for example, that Putin wants to end the war — well, that’s on us!

P.P.S. It’s clear that the Central European military alliance will be the first to recognize the independence of national states emerging within Russia, providing them with military assistance and long-term security guarantees — with all the long-term consequences for shaping the Central European macro-region.

Vladislav Olenchenko