Categories: ANALYTICS

Putin’s game and Trump’s trap

Through the mouthpiece of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Putin has begun to align his rhetoric with Donald Trump’s public statements. Trump recently claimed that launching American missiles on Russian territory would be madness and would escalate the conflict – one he has repeatedly promised to resolve within 24 hours.

Putin’s regime has initiated a game aimed at luring Trump into a trap, one that Trump would be forced to escape by making significant military and political concessions, potentially even at the cost of Ukraine. It is no coincidence that today’s statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense mentions American ATACMS missiles allegedly used to strike a military aircraft plant in Taganrog. The implication is clear: Putin supposedly wants peace, but these American missiles in Zelensky’s hands are hindering it and forcing the Kremlin’s “peace dove” to retaliate by striking Ukraine’s energy system.

Someone needs to explain to Trump that Putin will try to keep him “on a short leash,” constantly pretending to be ready – or not ready – to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine. Putin will dangle this “carrot” in front of Trump, first demanding that Zelensky meet a series of preconditions for Putin to agree to a ceasefire and sit at the negotiating table.

However, even if Trump gives in and Putin pauses hostilities or begins negotiations, the Kremlin will continuously pressure Trump, threatening to “walk away” if Zelensky refuses to meet the next round of Putin’s “fair demands for Russia.” Should Trump fall into this trap, he risks becoming a hostage to the circumstances and Putin’s so-called “goodwill.” He would be forced to placate Putin with more and more concessions, as a breakdown of negotiations and a renewal of active hostilities in Ukraine would leave Putin basking in applause from his supporters while Trump faces harsh criticism from Democrats and accusations of incompetence from his own voters for failing to deliver on his campaign promises.

Ukraine must communicate one key point to Trump: the United States needs to ensure that Ukraine’s armed forces are fully equipped with weapons and ammunition in advance. That way, if Putin exits negotiations and resumes fighting, Trump could instantly turn the situation to his advantage.

For example, if Ukraine’s military were to obliterate a dozen oil refineries in Russia overnight or encircle a significant contingent of Russian troops in Donetsk, Trump could emerge the next day and once again propose terms for peace and negotiations. This would embody the principle of “peace through strength,” championed by Trump and the Republicans.

If this proactive strategy is not adopted, Putin will undoubtedly turn Trump into a loser and a public laughingstock – an inept U.S. President who handed everything to Putin, betrayed allies, and still failed to achieve peace in Ukraine.

Vladislav Olenchenko